Monte Carlo Engine

Champions League Predictions 2026-27

We simulate the whole Champions League 10,000 times on our European club Elo ratings. Every league-phase match gets a sampled scoreline, draws included, the 36-club table is built the way UEFA builds it, and the rank-determined knockout is played out to the final. Out comes each club's chance of the title, the final, a top-8 finish and the knockout play-offs, plus the points we expect it to take from eight matches. Played matches are facts, not forecasts. Only what is still undecided is a probability.

Updated Sep 19, 08:15 10,000 simulated seasons 18 league phase matches played, 126 to go Calibrated probabilities
1
Arsenal ENG
27% to win it
2
Bayern München GER
26% to win it
3
Paris FRA
19% to win it

Title Odds 2026-27

Projected from 10,000 sims
Top 24 (knockout) Top 8 (straight to the last 16) Final Cells are the chance of getting that far, counted over the simulated seasons. Ranking is by title odds.
# Club xPts Rank Top 24 Top 8 Final Champion
1 Arsenal ENG 19.1 4.2 100% 90% 45% 27%
2 Bayern München GER 18.8 4.2 >99% 89% 43% 26%
3 Paris FRA 17.9 5.6 >99% 79% 36% 19%
4 Barcelona ESP 16.2 8.2 >99% 59% 13% 5.2%
5 Real Madrid ESP 17.4 6.5 >99% 73% 12% 4.6%
6 Man City ENG 16.5 8.0 >99% 60% 11% 4.5%
7 Liverpool ENG 17.7 6.3 >99% 74% 11% 4.3%
8 Man Utd ENG 15.3 9.9 98% 46% 9% 3.1%
9 Aston Villa ENG 16.7 7.7 >99% 62% 9% 3.1%
10 Inter ITA 14.2 11.7 97% 33% 5% 1.5%
11 B. Dortmund GER 14.3 11.9 97% 31% 2% <1%
12 Atleti ESP 11.7 16.8 86% 11% 2% <1%
13 Roma ITA 11.9 16.6 87% 10% 1% <1%
14 Como ITA 12.2 15.8 90% 13% <1% <1%
15 Real Betis ESP 12.3 16.1 90% 11% <1% <1%
16 Napoli ITA 11.5 17.3 84% 9% <1% <1%
17 Sporting CP POR 11.5 17.5 84% 9% <1% <1%
18 Stuttgart GER 12.8 14.9 91% 18% <1% <1%
19 Lille FRA 8.4 24.1 50% <1% <1% <1%
20 Leipzig GER 8.9 23.3 55% 2% <1% <1%
21 Porto POR 10.0 20.9 68% 3% <1% <1%
22 Shakhtar UKR 8.9 23.1 56% 2% <1% <1%
23 Fenerbahçe TUR 9.7 21.4 65% 3% <1% <1%
24 PSV NED 9.7 21.4 65% 3% <1% <1%
25 Bodø/Glimt NOR 9.3 22.7 57% 2% <1% <1%
26 Villarreal ESP 7.7 25.7 40% <1% <1% <1%
27 Club Brugge BEL 6.8 27.3 31% <1% - <1%
28 Galatasaray TUR 6.6 28.2 25% <1% - <1%
29 LASK AUT 6.5 28.2 25% <1% - <1%
30 Feyenoord NED 6.5 28.4 24% <1% - <1%
31 Lens FRA 10.3 20.4 70% 4% - <1%
32 Slavia Praha CZE 3.9 32.8 5% - - <1%
33 AEK Athens GRE 7.3 27.2 28% <1% - <1%
34 S. Bratislava SVK 5.2 30.8 13% <1% - <1%
35 Sabah AZE 5.4 30.6 13% <1% - <1%
36 Viking NOR 5.4 30.5 12% <1% - <1%

Top 24 is a league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so it counts the clubs that go straight through as well. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. xPts and Rank are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it. Board from run 20260919, 10,000 simulated seasons.

10,000 seasons

Each match is a sampled scoreline from a goals model built on European club Elo ratings, with home advantage and draws included. The league table, the knockout play-offs and every tie up to the final fall out of the goals.

The format decides

One 36-club league, eight matches each. Ranks 1 to 8 go straight to the last 16, ranks 9 to 24 play a two-legged play-off, ranks 25 to 36 are out. We simulate that ladder rather than assuming a bracket.

Full distributions

Every number here is a share of simulated seasons, so the whole distribution is on the page and not just a pick. One caveat we measure and publish: club strengths are held fixed inside a simulated season, so a small per-match edge compounds and an early board likely overstates the favourites. That is a known limitation of the engine and it is under review. Read how we build and check our models on the methodology page.

Tested against finished seasons

We re-ran this engine across each completed league phase, cut by cut, with only the information available on each date, and published what it said, including where it was wrong. These are model retrospectives, not forecasts we made at the time.

2025-26 retrospective →
2024-25 retrospective →
Match-model accuracy →

How is the Champions League simulated?

We rate every European club on an Elo ladder built from continental and domestic results, then fit a goals model on a decade of matches. Each league-phase match is sampled 10,000 times, the 36-club table is built on points and the official tie-breaks, and the knockout ladder is played out to the final. The odds you see are counts over those 10,000 simulated seasons.

What is the difference between Top 24 and Top 8?

Top 24 means finishing inside the knockout places, which includes the eight clubs that skip the play-off round, so it is always the larger number. Top 8 is the separate prize of a direct place in the last 16 and a seeded knockout path.

How often do the numbers update?

Daily. Qualifying results and league-phase results are locked in as they happen and the rest of the competition is re-simulated.

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

The Champions League title odds dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit: 

Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/champions_league_title_simulations">Champions League title odds by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)