Monte Carlo Engine

Champions League Predictions 2026-27

We simulate the whole Champions League 10,000 times on our European club Elo ratings. Every league-phase match gets a sampled scoreline, draws included, the 36-club table is built the way UEFA builds it, and the rank-determined knockout is played out to the final. Out comes each club's chance of the title, the final, a top-8 finish and the knockout play-offs, plus the points we expect it to take from eight matches. Played matches are facts, not forecasts. Only what is still undecided is a probability.

Updated Nov 03, 08:15 10,000 simulated seasons 54 league phase matches played, 90 to go Calibrated probabilities
1
Arsenal ENG
27% to win it
2
Paris FRA
25% to win it
3
Bayern München GER
19% to win it

Title Odds 2026-27

Projected from 10,000 sims
Top 24 (knockout) Top 8 (straight to the last 16) Final Cells are the chance of getting that far, counted over the simulated seasons. Ranking is by title odds.
# Club xPts Rank Top 24 Top 8 Final Champion
1 Arsenal ENG 19.3 3.9 100% 95% 45% 27%
2 Paris FRA 20.4 2.8 100% 97% 44% 25%
3 Bayern München GER 16.5 7.2 >99% 71% 35% 19%
4 Real Madrid ESP 19.7 3.7 100% 96% 17% 7.0%
5 Liverpool ENG 19.5 4.2 100% 92% 13% 5.3%
6 Aston Villa ENG 17.9 5.6 >99% 83% 13% 5.1%
7 Barcelona ESP 16.1 8.0 >99% 62% 12% 4.8%
8 Man City ENG 15.6 9.0 >99% 54% 9% 3.4%
9 Atleti ESP 13.2 13.4 96% 19% 2% <1%
10 Inter ITA 12.1 15.8 91% 10% 2% <1%
11 Man Utd ENG 11.3 17.7 84% 6% 2% <1%
12 B. Dortmund GER 13.3 13.6 98% 15% 2% <1%
13 Roma ITA 11.5 16.9 88% 6% <1% <1%
14 Como ITA 12.5 14.6 96% 13% <1% <1%
15 Real Betis ESP 14.5 11.8 >99% 26% <1% <1%
16 Stuttgart GER 14.3 11.7 98% 31% <1% <1%
17 Napoli ITA 11.0 18.6 82% 4% <1% <1%
18 Club Brugge BEL 11.2 18.1 83% 6% <1% <1%
19 Sporting CP POR 10.9 18.8 81% 4% <1% <1%
20 PSV NED 10.3 20.3 72% 3% <1% <1%
21 Leipzig GER 10.1 21.4 67% 1% <1% <1%
22 Villarreal ESP 9.6 21.6 66% 1% <1% <1%
23 Bodø/Glimt NOR 10.4 20.6 70% 2% <1% <1%
24 Porto POR 6.8 27.6 27% <1% <1% <1%
25 Galatasaray TUR 8.4 25.0 44% <1% <1% <1%
26 Lille FRA 5.5 30.3 11% <1% <1% <1%
27 Fenerbahçe TUR 7.2 27.5 26% <1% - <1%
28 Shakhtar UKR 9.9 21.0 68% 2% - <1%
29 LASK AUT 8.8 24.2 50% <1% - <1%
30 Feyenoord NED 8.3 25.3 41% <1% - <1%
31 Lens FRA 7.3 27.6 25% <1% - <1%
32 Slavia Praha CZE 3.2 34.0 <1% - - <1%
33 Sabah AZE 6.2 29.8 13% - - <1%
34 AEK Athens GRE 5.8 30.7 9% - - <1%
35 Viking NOR 5.9 29.6 14% <1% - <1%
36 S. Bratislava SVK 3.4 33.9 2% - - <1%

Top 24 is a league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so it counts the clubs that go straight through as well. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. xPts and Rank are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it. Board from run 20261103, 10,000 simulated seasons.

10,000 seasons

Each match is a sampled scoreline from a goals model built on European club Elo ratings, with home advantage and draws included. The league table, the knockout play-offs and every tie up to the final fall out of the goals.

The format decides

One 36-club league, eight matches each. Ranks 1 to 8 go straight to the last 16, ranks 9 to 24 play a two-legged play-off, ranks 25 to 36 are out. We simulate that ladder rather than assuming a bracket.

Full distributions

Every number here is a share of simulated seasons, so the whole distribution is on the page and not just a pick. One caveat we measure and publish: club strengths are held fixed inside a simulated season, so a small per-match edge compounds and an early board likely overstates the favourites. That is a known limitation of the engine and it is under review. Read how we build and check our models on the methodology page.

Tested against finished seasons

We re-ran this engine across each completed league phase, cut by cut, with only the information available on each date, and published what it said, including where it was wrong. These are model retrospectives, not forecasts we made at the time.

2025-26 retrospective →
2024-25 retrospective →
Match-model accuracy →

How is the Champions League simulated?

We rate every European club on an Elo ladder built from continental and domestic results, then fit a goals model on a decade of matches. Each league-phase match is sampled 10,000 times, the 36-club table is built on points and the official tie-breaks, and the knockout ladder is played out to the final. The odds you see are counts over those 10,000 simulated seasons.

What is the difference between Top 24 and Top 8?

Top 24 means finishing inside the knockout places, which includes the eight clubs that skip the play-off round, so it is always the larger number. Top 8 is the separate prize of a direct place in the last 16 and a seeded knockout path.

How often do the numbers update?

Daily. Qualifying results and league-phase results are locked in as they happen and the rest of the competition is re-simulated.

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

The Champions League title odds dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit: 

Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/champions_league_title_simulations">Champions League title odds by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)