Monte Carlo Engine

Champions League Predictions 2026-27

We simulate the whole Champions League 10,000 times on our European club Elo ratings. Every league-phase match gets a sampled scoreline, draws included, the 36-club table is built the way UEFA builds it, and the rank-determined knockout is played out to the final. Out comes each club's chance of the title, the final, a top-8 finish and the knockout play-offs, plus the points we expect it to take from eight matches.

Updated Aug 04, 21:15 10,000 simulated seasons Calibrated probabilities
Provisional board. The field is not final.

The league phase has 36 places and 29 clubs are confirmed. The last 7 are still being played for in qualifying, which ends with the play-off round in late August. Until then this board covers the whole entrant field of 67 clubs from 39 associations, and every probability already integrates over who comes through.

A club still in qualifying therefore carries its own elimination risk in its title odds. Its expected points and projected finish are the numbers for the season it plays if it gets in.

1
Arsenal ENG
28% to win it
2
Bayern München GER
24% to win it
3
Paris FRA
20% to win it

Provisional Title Odds 2026-27

Field not final
Top 24 (knockout) Top 8 (straight to the last 16) Final Still in qualifying Cells are the chance of getting that far, counted over the simulated seasons. Ranking is by title odds.
# Club Pot In xPts Rank Top 24 Top 8 Final Champion
1 Arsenal ENG 1 18.8 4.2 >99% 88% 45% 28%
2 Bayern München GER 1 18.6 4.2 >99% 88% 42% 24%
3 Paris FRA 1 18.2 5.0 >99% 83% 37% 20%
4 Barcelona ESP 1 15.6 9.0 98% 55% 12% 5.0%
5 Real Madrid ESP 1 15.2 9.6 97% 50% 11% 4.2%
6 Man City ENG 1 15.5 9.2 98% 53% 9% 3.6%
7 Man Utd ENG 2 15.4 9.4 98% 52% 9% 3.4%
8 Liverpool ENG 1 15.4 9.5 97% 51% 9% 3.2%
9 Aston Villa ENG 2 15.2 9.8 97% 50% 9% 3.0%
10 Inter ITA 1 14.3 11.5 96% 39% 6% 2.0%
11 Atleti ESP 1 13.3 13.6 92% 27% 3% <1%
12 B. Dortmund GER 2 13.5 13.2 92% 30% 2% <1%
13 Roma ITA 2 12.9 14.5 90% 23% 2% <1%
14 Lyon FRA In qualifying 3 81% 13.3 13.6 74% 22% 2% <1%
15 Napoli ITA 3 11.6 17.3 81% 13% <1% <1%
16 Como ITA 4 10.9 18.9 75% 9% <1% <1%
17 Leipzig GER 3 10.9 19.0 74% 9% <1% <1%
18 Lille FRA 3 11.1 18.3 76% 11% <1% <1%
19 Sporting CP POR 2 10.4 19.9 70% 8% <1% <1%
20 Real Betis ESP 2 10.6 19.6 72% 8% <1% <1%
21 Porto POR 2 10.2 20.5 67% 6% <1% <1%
22 Club Brugge BEL 2 8.6 24.1 49% 2% <1% <1%
23 Stuttgart GER 4 10.1 20.8 66% 6% <1% <1%
24 PSV NED 2 9.4 22.2 59% 4% <1% <1%
25 Bodø/Glimt NOR In qualifying 3 58% 9.5 21.9 35% 3% <1% <1%
26 Villarreal ESP 3 8.9 23.5 52% 3% <1% <1%
27 Lens FRA 4 8.6 24.1 49% 2% <1% <1%
28 Galatasaray TUR 3 7.9 25.7 39% 1% - <1%
29 Fenerbahçe TUR In qualifying 3 18% 8.4 24.5 8% <1% - <1%
30 Olympiacos GRE In qualifying 3 20% 7.7 26.1 7% <1% - <1%
31 Union SG BEL In qualifying 3 11% 7.0 27.5 3% <1% - <1%
32 Shakhtar UKR 3 7.7 26.0 38% 1% - <1%
33 GNK Dinamo CRO In qualifying 4 42% 7.9 25.7 16% <1% - <1%
34 Crvena Zvezda SRB In qualifying 4 54% 8.1 25.3 23% <1% - <1%
35 Sparta Praha CZE In qualifying 4 4% 6.8 27.9 <1% <1% - <1%
36 Celtic SCO In qualifying 4 62% 6.6 28.3 15% <1% - <1%
37 LASK AUT In qualifying 4 60% 7.1 27.4 18% <1% - <1%
38 Feyenoord NED 3 6.5 28.7 23% <1% - <1%
39 Slavia Praha CZE 4 5.7 30.1 15% <1% - <1%
40 H. Beer-Sheva ISR In qualifying 4 14% 6.1 29.4 3% <1% - <1%
41 Levski Sofia BUL In qualifying 4 18% 6.6 28.3 5% <1% - <1%
42 Lech Poznań POL In qualifying 4 28% 5.8 30.0 5% <1% - <1%
43 Sturm Graz AUT In qualifying 4 4% 5.7 30.2 <1% - - <1%
44 S. Bratislava SVK In qualifying 4 25% 5.4 30.8 3% - - <1%
45 Mjällby SWE In qualifying 4 24% 6.1 29.3 5% <1% - <1%
46 Sabah AZE In qualifying 4 24% 6.1 29.3 5% <1% - <1%
47 Aarhus DEN In qualifying 4 1% 5.5 30.9 <1% - - <1%
48 AEK Athens GRE In qualifying 4 39% 4.8 31.8 3% <1% - <1%
49 N.E.C. NED In qualifying 4 5% 5.4 30.5 <1% - - <1%
50 Kairat Almaty KAZ In qualifying 4 6% 5.0 31.3 <1% <1% - <1%
51 U. Craiova ROU In qualifying 4 6% 5.0 31.3 <1% - - <1%
52 Thun SUI In qualifying 4 4% 4.8 31.8 <1% - - <1%
53 Omonia CYP In qualifying 4 20% 5.1 31.2 2% - - <1%
54 Viking NOR In qualifying 4 40% 5.6 30.3 6% <1% - <1%
55 Górnik Zabrze POL In qualifying 4 <1% 4.9 31.7 <1% - - <1%
56 Víkingur R. ISL In qualifying 4 6% 4.5 32.0 <1% - - <1%
57 Klaksvík FRO In qualifying 4 6% 3.9 33.0 <1% - - <1%
58 Ararat-Armenia ARM In qualifying 4 6% 3.8 33.4 <1% - - <1%
59 Shamrock Rovers IRL In qualifying 4 2% 3.7 33.1 <1% - - <1%
60 Celje SVN In qualifying 4 12% 4.1 32.7 <1% - - <1%
61 KuPS Kuopio FIN In qualifying 4 2% 3.5 33.3 <1% - - <1%
62 Hearts SCO In qualifying - <1% - - - - - <1%
63 Kauno Žalgiris LTU In qualifying 4 3% 2.9 34.3 <1% - - <1%
64 Egnatia ALB In qualifying 4 1% 3.2 33.8 <1% - - <1%
65 Iberia Tbilisi GEO In qualifying - <1% - - - - - <1%
66 L. Red Imps GIB In qualifying - <1% - - - - - <1%
67 Larne NIR In qualifying - <1% - - - - - <1%

Top 24 is a league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so it counts the clubs that go straight through as well. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. xPts and Rank are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it. Board from run 20260804, 10,000 simulated seasons over 200 qualifying scenarios.

10,000 seasons

Each match is a sampled scoreline from a goals model built on European club Elo ratings, with home advantage and draws included. The league table, the knockout play-offs and every tie up to the final fall out of the goals.

The format decides

One 36-club league, eight matches each. Ranks 1 to 8 go straight to the last 16, ranks 9 to 24 play a two-legged play-off, ranks 25 to 36 are out. We simulate that ladder rather than assuming a bracket.

Full distributions

Every number here is a share of simulated seasons, so the whole distribution is on the page and not just a pick. One caveat we measure and publish: club strengths are held fixed inside a simulated season, so a small per-match edge compounds and an early board likely overstates the favourites. That is a known limitation of the engine and it is under review. Read how we build and check our models on the methodology page.

Tested against finished seasons

We re-ran this engine across each completed league phase, cut by cut, with only the information available on each date, and published what it said, including where it was wrong. These are model retrospectives, not forecasts we made at the time.

2025-26 retrospective →
2024-25 retrospective →
Match-model accuracy →

How is the Champions League simulated?

We rate every European club on an Elo ladder built from continental and domestic results, then fit a goals model on a decade of matches. Each league-phase match is sampled 10,000 times, the 36-club table is built on points and the official tie-breaks, and the knockout ladder is played out to the final. The odds you see are counts over those 10,000 simulated seasons.

Why does the board show more than 36 clubs?

Because the field is not final yet. 29 clubs are already in and the remaining 7 places are decided in qualifying, which ends with the play-off round in late August. Rather than guess the winners we simulate the qualifying rounds too, so a club that is still playing for its place shows the title odds it has today, elimination risk included. The board drops to 36 rows once the draw exists.

What is the difference between Top 24 and Top 8?

Top 24 means finishing inside the knockout places, which includes the eight clubs that skip the play-off round, so it is always the larger number. Top 8 is the separate prize of a direct place in the last 16 and a seeded knockout path.

How often do the numbers update?

Daily. Qualifying results and league-phase results are locked in as they happen and the rest of the competition is re-simulated.

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

The Champions League title odds dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit: 

Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/champions_league_title_simulations">Champions League title odds by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)