Olympiacos Piraeus vs Real Madrid Prediction — EuroLeague 2025-26 Final Four · May 24, 2026
Olympiacos Piraeus
Home
61.9%
VS
Real Madrid
Away
38.1%
Why the Model Favors Olympiacos Piraeus
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 62% for Olympiacos Piraeus. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →
Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.
Set it upPlayer Projections
Per-player expected lines and full probability distributions, including PIR — EuroLeague's signature box-score metric. Click a player to view their full distributions.
HOMEOlympiacos Piraeus
Thomas Walkup
PTS5.4
REB2.4
AST5.1
3PM1.1
PIR10.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(PIR > X)
Tyler Dorsey
PTS14.7
REB2.1
AST2.2
3PM2.3
PIR13.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(PIR > X)
Sasha Vezenkov
PTS17.8
REB5.7
AST1.4
3PM1.8
PIR19.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(PIR > X)
Kostas Papanikolaou
PTS3.6
REB1.9
AST1.2
3PM1.0
PIR6.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(PIR > X)
Nikola Milutinov
PTS11.2
REB6.8
AST1.0
3PM0.0
PIR17.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(PIR > X)
AWAYReal Madrid
Facundo Campazzo
PTS12.2
REB2.2
AST4.9
3PM2.2
PIR13.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(PIR > X)
Alberto Abalde
PTS3.7
REB1.6
AST1.0
3PM0.9
PIR4.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(PIR > X)
Mario Hezonja
PTS14.2
REB4.1
AST2.6
3PM1.8
PIR13.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(PIR > X)
Chuma Okeke
PTS5.2
REB3.5
AST0.8
3PM1.3
PIR7.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(PIR > X)
Alex Len
PTS4.0
REB2.8
AST0.6
3PM0.1
PIR5.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(PIR > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Thomas Walkup
PTS
5.4
PIR
10.8
REB
2.4
VS
Facundo Campazzo
PTS
12.2
PIR
13.2
REB
2.2
SG
Tyler Dorsey
PTS
14.7
PIR
13.9
REB
2.1
VS
Alberto Abalde
PTS
3.7
PIR
4.6
REB
1.6
SF
Sasha Vezenkov
PTS
17.8
PIR
19.2
REB
5.7
VS
Mario Hezonja
PTS
14.2
PIR
13.6
REB
4.1
PF
Kostas Papanikolaou
PTS
3.6
PIR
6.0
REB
1.9
VS
Chuma Okeke
PTS
5.2
PIR
7.4
REB
3.5
C
Nikola Milutinov
PTS
11.2
PIR
17.1
REB
6.8
VS
Alex Len
PTS
4.0
PIR
5.3
REB
2.8
PTS = Projected Points ·
PIR = Performance Index Rating (all-round impact) ·
REB = Projected Rebounds
Total Points & Spread Analysis
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models — both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 171.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(≤ X)
Spread (Olympiacos Piraeus − Real Madrid) · expected +3.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Olympiacos Piraeus
+253
+49 over last 5 games
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average club; resets each season).
Real Madrid
+178
+43 over last 5 games
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average club; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every club stacks up — full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Olympiacos Piraeus
5-0 in last 5
WWWWW
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EA7 Emporio Armani Milan | 85 | 76 | +9 | |
| AS Monaco | 91 | 70 | +21 | |
| AS Monaco | 94 | 64 | +30 | |
| AS Monaco | 105 | 82 | +23 | |
| Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul | 79 | 61 | +18 |
Real Madrid
4-1 in last 5
WWLWW
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv | 86 | 82 | +4 | |
| Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv | 102 | 75 | +27 | |
| Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv | 69 | 76 | -7 | |
| Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv | 87 | 81 | +6 | |
| Valencia Basket | 105 | 90 | +15 |
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