Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Elias Ymer vs Alexander Shevchenko: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Elias Ymer

Rank: #171
30%
VS

Alexander Shevchenko

Rank: #106
70%
Expected Total Games: 38.0
Predicted Winner: Alexander Shevchenko

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Ranking Trends

Elias Ymer

  • Current #171 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #202 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #237 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #259 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #327 2025-01-13

Alexander Shevchenko

  • Current #106 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #99 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #110 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #92 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #77 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Elias Ymer

Form Index: 83.1
ELO Rating: 454.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1523.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.8
Clay: 2.4
Grass: 2.2
Serve Rating: 65.4
Return Rating: 70.7

Alexander Shevchenko

Form Index: 53.5
ELO Rating: 677.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1583.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.7
Clay: 15.4
Grass: 11.8
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 95.4

Recent Matches

Elias Ymer
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Coleman Wong (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Elmer Moller (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Bolt (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Laslo Djere (0-2) hard Hong Kong 111 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Denis Shapovalov (1-2) hard Stockholm 156 min

Alexander Shevchenko
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Elias Ymer
vs
0
Alexander Shevchenko
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the Australian Open 2026, Elias Ymer is set to face Alexander Shevchenko on the hard courts of Australia. Shevchenko is favored to win with a probability of 70.40%, while Ymer's chances sit at 29.60%. The expected total number of games in this match is 38.03, indicating a potentially competitive encounter.

Match Analysis

Elias Ymer, currently ranked 171, has a form index of 83.08 and an Elo rating of 454.34, reflecting a solid recent performance. However, he has logged 522 minutes of cumulative fatigue in this tournament, which may impact his resilience on court. His surface strength index is 1.80, suggesting limited effectiveness on hard courts. Ymer's mean serve index is 65.38, while his mean return index stands at 70.72, indicating a balanced approach but not an overwhelming advantage in either area. Conversely, Alexander Shevchenko, ranked 106, possesses a higher Elo rating of 677.87 and a form index of 53.50. He has yet to accumulate any fatigue this tournament, which could grant him an advantage in stamina. Shevchenko's surface strength index is 15.71, and his mean serve index of 97.35 significantly outpaces Ymer's, while his mean return index of 95.40 also gives him a notable advantage in that area. Recent performances show Ymer winning his last three matches in the Australian Open, whereas Shevchenko had a mixed outing in Adelaide, winning two and losing one.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.0 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Elias Ymer - Alexander Shevchenko) +2.1 Most likely spread: +2 (Elias Ymer wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to see around 13.89 aces and 5.29 double faults. Given the medium-paced nature of hard courts, these figures reflect a reasonable balance between strong serving capabilities and return proficiency. Shevchenko's higher mean serve index suggests he may contribute significantly to the aces prediction, potentially tilting the balance in his favor. Meanwhile, both players' expected double faults indicate room for error, but Ymer may struggle more under pressure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.9 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.3 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Alexander Shevchenko's higher rank, better serve, and fresh legs position him as the favorite against Elias Ymer. The key factor to watch will be Shevchenko's serving performance, as his ability to dominate with aces could decisively influence the match outcome.

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