Dallas TX, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Trevor Svajda vs Ethan Quinn: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Trevor Svajda

Rank: #364
17%
VS

Ethan Quinn

Rank: #68
83%
Expected Total Games: 22.8
Predicted Winner: Ethan Quinn

Ranking Trends

Trevor Svajda

  • Current Rank: #364 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #387 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #1000 (None)
  • 9 Months Ago: #1000 (None)
  • 12 Months Ago: #666 (2025-02-10)

Ethan Quinn

  • Current Rank: #68 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #64 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #82 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #114 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #150 (2025-02-10)

Player Metrics

Trevor Svajda

Form Index: 12.2
ELO Rating: 124.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1504.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 0.0
Clay: 0.2
Grass: 0.2
Serve Rating: 71.8
Return Rating: 59.5

Ethan Quinn

Form Index: 65.9
ELO Rating: 877.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1539.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.2
Clay: 7.7
Grass: 6.1
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 88.1

Recent Matches

Trevor Svajda
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Kamil Majchrzak (0-2) hard Indian Wells 67 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Ethan Quinn (0-2) hard Dallas 85 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min

Ethan Quinn
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Hubert Hurkacz (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Tallon Griekspoor (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Marton Fucsovics (0-2) hard Adelaide 95 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Raphael Collignon (0-2) hard Brisbane 78 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Trevor Svajda
vs
1
Ethan Quinn
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Dallas, TX is on hard courts at a 500-level event. The model projects Ethan Quinn to win comfortably, with an 82.54% probability versus Trevor Svajda’s 17.46%, and a projected total of about 22.84 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Ethan Quinn arrives with a clear statistical advantage: his Elo (877.65) and form index (65.86) are far higher than Trevor Svajda’s Elo (124.0) and form index (12.23). Both players show no tournament fatigue. Surface strength indices are low for both, but Ethan’s 8.23 is greater than Trevor’s 0.0. There is a large gap in serving and returning: Quinn’s mean serve index (96.22) exceeds Svajda’s (71.82) by over 24 points, and his mean return index (88.07) tops Svajda’s (59.54) by roughly 28 points — both differences are well above the 5-point threshold and likely decisive on hard courts. Looking at recent matches, Svajda’s last two recorded outings were losses: a straight-sets defeat at Indian Wells and a straight-sets loss to Quinn earlier in Dallas. He has no recorded wins in the last three entries. Quinn’s recent run shows two straight wins (including a win over Hubert Hurkacz and Tallon Griekspoor) followed by a loss in his most recent match at the Australian Open. That sequence suggests stronger recent form overall for Quinn despite the last-match setback.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.8 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is high: the model gives predicted aces of 21.47 combined, and a double faults prediction of 5.92 expected double faults. Hard courts typically yield a moderate-to-high ace count relative to clay, and Quinn’s substantially higher serve index should boost the ace tally in his favor. Given the serve disparity, a large portion of the predicted aces likely come from Quinn.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 21.5 Most likely: 21 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Quinn’s superior serve, return numbers and overall form drive the heavy probability in his favor. The key factor to watch will be whether Svajda can neutralize Quinn’s serve early; if he cannot, the match is likely to be short and serve-dominated.

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