Buenos Aires Argentina Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Lautaro Midon vs Pedro Martinez: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Lautaro Midon

Rank: #231
41%
VS

Pedro Martinez

Rank: #77
59%
Expected Total Games: 20.9
Predicted Winner: Pedro Martinez

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Player Metrics

Lautaro Midon

Form Index: 41.6
ELO Rating: 280.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1519.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 220.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 0.0
Clay: 1.6
Grass: 1.2
Serve Rating: 70.0
Return Rating: 100.0

Pedro Martinez

Form Index: 0.6
ELO Rating: 631.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1617.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.7
Clay: 6.5
Grass: 6.0
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 93.7

Recent Matches

Lautaro Midon

  • Last Match: vs Daniel Elahi Galan (2-1) clay Buenos Aires 141 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Felipe Meligeni Alves (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 79 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min

Pedro Martinez

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Lautaro Midon
vs
0
Pedro Martinez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 clash at the Buenos Aires 250 tournament is on clay in Argentina. The model favors Pedro Martinez to win, assigning him a 58.92% probability versus Lautaro Midon’s 41.08%, with a predicted total of about 20.95 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Midon enters ranked 231 with an Elo of 280.06 and a form index of 41.64. He carries 220 minutes of cumulative court time at this event, which shows he has already played through two matches here. His surface strength index is 1.57, his mean serve index is 69.96 and his mean return index is a maximum-value 100.0. Martinez is ranked 77 with a substantially higher Elo of 630.97 but a very low form index of 0.64 and zero cumulative minutes on this tournament. His surface strength index is 6.53, his mean serve index is 96.86 and his mean return index is 93.69. The mean serve index gap (≈27 points) clearly favors Martinez and the mean return gap (≈6.3 points) slightly favors Midon. Recent match patterns reinforce those metrics. Midon has won his two completed matches at Buenos Aires — a 141-minute three-setter and a 79-minute straight-sets win — demonstrating match toughness on clay in this draw. Martinez’s last three recorded results here are losses on hard courts (Montpellier, Australian Open and Paris) with no minutes logged in this tournament, which leaves him fresher but coming off defeats according to the available data.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 20.9 Most likely outcome: 20 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Lautaro Midon versus Pedro Martinez. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Lautaro Midon versus Pedro Martinez. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Lautaro Midon - Pedro Martinez) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Lautaro Midon versus Pedro Martinez. Positive values indicate Lautaro Midon winning more games, negative values indicate Pedro Martinez winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Lautaro Midon versus Pedro Martinez. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 16.86 total (predicted aces), with an expected double faults figure of 5.74 (double faults prediction). On clay, slower ball speed and higher bounce generally reduce ace counts and can increase the chance of expected double faults as rallies lengthen and fatigue accumulates. Given Martinez’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces despite the surface.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Lautaro Midon versus Pedro Martinez. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Lautaro Midon versus Pedro Martinez. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Lautaro Midon versus Pedro Martinez. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Lautaro Midon versus Pedro Martinez. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Martinez’s higher ranking and Elo combined with a much stronger serve give him the edge in the model. The key factor to watch will be Midon’s elite return index versus Martinez’s big-serve profile — the outcome will hinge on whether Midon can neutralize serve advantage early in points.

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