Taylor Fritz vs Rafael Jodar: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Fritz comes largely from overall strength, recent form and the serve & return profile. Overall strength contributes +6.4 percentage points toward Fritz; his higher tour rank (No. 10), an Elo of 1916.10 and a solid form index (64.40) underpin that advantage. Recent form adds another +6.2 points: Fritz arrives having won three straight matches in Washington (victories over Bergs, Majchrzak and Michelsen), with match times of 79, 75 and a longer 138 minutes in the last round. His cumulative fatigue in the event is 292 minutes. Serve & return dynamics push +6.1 points to Fritz as well. Fritz posts a mean serve index of 98.46 and a mean return index of 88.30; Jodar’s comparable indices are 95.07 (serve) and 89.64 (return). Neither gap exceeds five points, so service and return tools are relatively close on paper. The model does note modest pushes toward Jodar on age (+4.3 points) and surface fit (+2.1 points); interestingly, those adjustments favor Jodar even though Fritz’s surface strength index (40.29) is higher than Jodar’s (32.52). Jodar’s tournament run has been strong — three straight wins over Fils, Nishikori and Musetti with slightly higher accumulated fatigue at 300 minutes — so he arrives battle hardened.