Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Tomas Machac vs Sho Shimabukuro Prediction

Tomas Machac

Rank: #22
71%
VS

Sho Shimabukuro

Rank: #271
29%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Tomas Machac

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Ranking Trends

Tomas Machac

  • Current #22 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #23 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #21 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #25 2024-12-23
  • 12 mo ago #34 2024-09-23

Sho Shimabukuro

  • Current #271 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #188 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #188 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #190 2024-12-23
  • 12 mo ago #165 2024-09-23

Player Metrics

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 70.8
ELO Rating: 1232.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1601.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.2
Clay: 14.0
Grass: 12.9
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 86.8

Sho Shimabukuro

Form Index: 52.1
ELO Rating: 388.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1548.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 159.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.7
Clay: 2.3
Grass: 3.2
Serve Rating: 93.8
Return Rating: 84.3

Recent Matches

Tomas Machac
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Blanchet (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Joao Fonseca (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Luca Nardi (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Adrian Mannarino (0-2) hard Cincinnati 90 min

Sho Shimabukuro
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (2-0) hard Tokio 80 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Mariano Navone (2-0) hard Tokio 79 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Yuta Shimizu (1-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Li Tu (1-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Aziz Dougaz (2-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Machac
vs
0
Sho Shimabukuro
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the ATP 500 event in Tokyo, Tomas Machac is set to face Sho Shimabukuro on hard courts. With Machac ranked 22nd and holding a 70.84% probability of winning, he is favored against the 271st-ranked Shimabukuro, who has a 29.16% chance. The predicted total number of games played in this match is 22.0.

Match Analysis

Tomas Machac enters the match with a solid form index of 70.76, reflecting his competitive edge on the tour. His Elo rating of 1232.85 indicates a strong performance level, while he has no fatigue accumulated from the current tournament. His surface strength index of 14.20 reveals his proficiency on hard courts, combined with a mean serve index of 96.55 and a mean return index of 86.84, both of which are significantly higher than Shimabukuro's metrics. The difference in mean serve index between the two players is over 2 points, which could play a critical role in the match. In contrast, Sho Shimabukuro's recent performances show a form index of 52.11 and an Elo rating of 388.94. He has accumulated 159 minutes of fatigue from his matches in this tournament, and his surface strength index is notably lower at 2.74. Although he has won his last two matches against lower-ranked opponents, his mean serve index is at 93.83, and his mean return index is 84.28, both trailing behind Machac's figures.

Final Prediction

Tomas Machac's higher rankings, better recent form, and superior serve and return statistics provide him with a significant edge going into this matchup. A key factor to watch will be Machac's ability to maintain his powerful serve, as it could dictate the tempo of the match and potentially overwhelm Shimabukuro.

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