Luca Nardi

ATP ELO profile · tour-level matches since 2015

ELO 1435 · #682 Hard #520 Clay #549 Grass #151 Last match: Aug 30, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per match: the player's ELO rating after that match, matches in round order. Ratings are season-scoped: every January the engine re-seeds each player from ATP entry points, then updates after every result. That is why trajectories are shown one season at a time. Hover a point for the match behind it.

Career record

42-67 38.5% in 109 matches

Clay 12-21
Grass 3-8
Hard 27-38

Season by season

SeasonMW-LStartPeakEnd
2026 14 4-10 1560 1557 1435
2025 36 16-20 1564 1654 1556
2024 27 9-18 1555 1707 1499
2023 18 6-12 1541 1592 1434
2022 13 7-6 1512 1601 1577
2020 1 0-1 1500 1489 1489

Recent matches

WeekTournamentOpponentResult
Aug 30, 2026 Us Open · Hard Federico Cina L 0-1
Jul 13, 2026 Umag · Clay Andrea Guerrieri L 0-2
Jun 29, 2026 Wimbledon · Grass Otto Virtanen L 0-2
Rio Noguchi W 2-0
May 06, 2026 Rome · Clay Andrea Pellegrino L 1-2
Mar 04, 2026 Indian Wells · Hard Trevor Svajda L 1-2
Feb 23, 2026 Dubai · Hard Jiri Lehecka L 1-2
Pablo Carreno Busta L 1-2
Marco Trungelliti W 2-1
Feb 02, 2026 Montpellier · Hard Martin Damm L 0-2

Serve predictions: how close do we get on Luca Nardi?

2025 · out-of-sample backtest Aces per match: 3.0 actual vs 4.5 projected
1.81 our average miss per match
1.74 baseline average miss (last five matches)
-4% accuracy edge over the baseline

Comparison covers 18 of the 23 aces projections we made in 2025. A match needs five earlier matches on record before the baseline exists.

The baseline predicts a player's aces as the average of their last five matches. Our model beats it when its projections land closer to what actually happened. Both numbers are the average miss per match, so lower is better, and both are for the selected season only.

Predictability: does Luca Nardi follow the script?

On serve · 2025
SeasonMW-LModel hitUpsetsVerdict
2025 23 9-14 60.9% 9 vs 8.4 exp On serve
2024 bt 16 4-12 75.0% 4 vs 5.8 exp On serve

An upset = our model's favorite losing. "Upsets" compares how many actually happened in Luca Nardi's matches with how many the model expected for that exact schedule. A season-level read (a wild-card season does not carry over year to year). How to read this · full board: most predictable ATP players.

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

The ATP ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:

Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/tennis-power-rankings/luca-nardi">ATP ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)