WTA Aces & Double Faults
What each player's serve is projected to do in the next matches
Updated: 24 Aug 2026No serve projections available
Per-player aces and double faults appear here once the next WTA run publishes.
Between tournaments the schedule is empty, which is normal.
How the serve projections work
Aces and double faults are modelled per player, one model per statistic with a separate output for each side of the net. Every projection is a full probability distribution, not just an average: the model prices how likely each individual count is, from zero upwards.
The models read serve and return form, the surface, the opponent's return profile and the expected length of the match. That last one matters more than it sounds: aces accumulate with games played, so the same server projects differently into a likely three-setter than into a probable straight-sets win.
The PDF chart shows the probability of each exact count. The CDF chart answers "what is the chance of more than X?" at every threshold. The match total you see elsewhere on the site is derived from these two players, so the parts and the whole always agree.
See how accurate these projections have been, player by player
Frequently asked questions
How many aces will a player serve in their next match?
Each row carries that player's expected number of aces for their next match, and expanding the row shows the whole distribution behind it. The expected value is the average outcome, not a prediction that the exact number will occur: the chart is where the real answer lives, because it shows how likely every other count is too.
Why two numbers per match instead of one total?
Because a match total hides the question most people are actually asking. A big server against a returner who never gets broken produces a very different split than two even servers, and both can add up to the same total. The models project each player separately, and the match total published elsewhere on the site is derived from the two.
How do I read the distribution chart?
The tallest bar is the single most likely count. A narrow, peaked shape means the model is confident, and a long flat tail to the right means a blow-up is genuinely possible. The dashed line marks the expected value, which sits to the right of the peak for serve counts because the tail is one-sided. Full guide to probability charts.
How accurate are they?
We publish that too, per player and per season, against the forecast anyone could make without a model, which is the average of that player's last five matches. The board is on the player predictability page, and the calibration of the underlying distributions is on the model transparency page.
How often is this updated?
Once a day, when the WTA run publishes the next batch of matches. Between tournaments the page is empty, which is the schedule and not an outage.