Euroleague Player Predictability Board
How predictable is each Euroleague starter? Before every game we project points, rebounds and PIR for the expected starting five. This board compares those projections with what each player actually produced over the 2026-27 season, for every starter with at least 15 starts. The score measures how much closer our projections get than a simple average of the player's recent games: the higher it is, the easier that player is to call in advance. The details are in how the score works.
| # | Player | Role | Team | Starts | Score | PTS MAEmodel / naive | REB MAEmodel / naive | PIR MAEmodel / naive | AST MAEmodel / naive | 3PM MAEmodel / naive |
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Starts = games started (projections assume the starting five, so only those games count). MAE = mean absolute error per game, lower is better; the grey number is the naive rolling-average baseline on the same games. PIR is the Euroleague's own performance index rating, and it is the only stat here that can go negative. Tap any column header to sort.
How the score works
A high score does not mean a better player, it means a player whose production our models can call game by game. The score compares two forecasters on the games a player started: our model, which publishes a full probability distribution for his points, rebounds and PIR before tip-off, and a naive one that just averages his season and last-5 numbers. We measure both with CRPS, a standard score for probabilistic forecasts, and report how much better the model is, in percent. Positive means the model reads that player better than the rolling average; around zero means his games are hard to call for anyone. Assists and threes are published alongside but kept out of the score: the model wins on them league-wide with a thinner per-player majority than the three badge stats. The full write-up is in how the predictability score works.
Click any player for his game-by-game predicted vs actual profile with probability bands. Today's projections live on the Euroleague player projections page, team rating profiles on Euroleague team profiles, and how the models work on the methodology page.
Predixsport model outputs measured against the official Euroleague box scores. Not affiliated with Euroleague Basketball. Privacy policy.