Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
Euroleague ELO profile, season simulation & model record · 12 seasons covered
Also listed in our corpus as Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade, Crvena Zvezda mts Belgrade, Crvena Zvezda Telekom Belgrade. Euroleague team names carry the title sponsor of the season, so this page keeps one stable address for the team itself.
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, playoffs and Final Four included. Euroleague ELO is season-relative in our engine: every team starts each season at 0, so the value reads as a gap to that season's league average and negative numbers are normal, not a red flag. Because of the re-seed, trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position that day.
Season simulation
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Reached: Play-in 21W–17L regular season
Full Euroleague simulation: every team's odds and the projected bracket →
How predictable is Crvena Zvezda Belgrade?
Chaos team 2025-26 · 33 predicted games season backtest
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, Crvena Zvezda Belgrade was 10.5% harder to call than the Euroleague average. A team can be easy to call while losing: a predictable season is not a good season. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | Euroleague avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 season backtest | 33 | 63.6% | 67.0% | 69.2% (league 75.8%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 Crvena Zvezda Belgrade won 1 game as a clear underdog (we gave them 35% or less) and lost 3 as a clear favourite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 as Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade | 39 | #10 | -31 | +89 | +11 |
| 2024-25 | 35 | #11 | +18 | +73 | -13 |
| 2023-24 | 34 | #14 | +22 | +30 | -97 |
| 2022-23 | 34 | #8 | -19 | +18 | +18 |
| 2021-22 as Crvena Zvezda mts Belgrade | 33 | #15 | -12 | +37 | -40 |
| 2020-21 | 34 | #17 | -19 | +5 | -153 |
| 2019-20 | 28 | #12 | -13 | +6 | -71 |
| 2017-18 | 30 | #15 | -8 | +10 | -118 |
| 2016-17 | 30 | #9 | -18 | +105 | +3 |
| 2015-16 as Crvena Zvezda Telekom Belgrade | 27 | #14 | +22 | +86 | -39 |
| 2014-15 | 24 | #12 | +16 | +65 | -14 |
| 2013-14 | 10 | #10 | -18 | +15 | +15 |
GP counts every Euroleague game in the corpus including the playoffs and the Final Four. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank on its last game day of that season, ranked against every team's last known rating on that date. Start, Peak and End are season-relative ELO values (each season re-seeds at 0). The "as" line appears when the team's registered name changed, which in the Euroleague usually means a new title sponsor rather than a new team.
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chima Moneke | PF | 29 | 5.3 |
| Jordan Nwora | SF | 24 | 2.4 |
| Codi Miller-McIntyre | PG | 33 | 1.3 |
| Nikola Kalinic | SG | 19 | -4.6 |
| Donatas Motiejunas | C | 21 | -29.1 |
Every Crvena Zvezda Belgrade player with a predictability profile: started games only, 15-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points, rebounds and PIR against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2026 | at FC Barcelona | L Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 38.2% | L 72-80 ✓ |
| Apr 16, 2026 | at Real Madrid | L Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 30.7% | L 82-103 ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | at ASVEL Villeurbanne | W Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 52.6% | W 106-93 ✓ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | vs Paris Basketball | W Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 65.4% | W 94-81 ✓ |
| Apr 02, 2026 | vs Partizan Belgrade | W Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 71.2% | L 82-89 ✗ |
| Mar 27, 2026 | at FC Barcelona | L Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 44.3% | L 88-92 ✓ |
| Mar 25, 2026 | at Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz | W Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 51.6% | W 108-100 ✓ |
| Mar 20, 2026 | at Panathinaikos Athens | L Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 46.0% | L 74-82 ✓ |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vs Fenerbahce Istanbul | W Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 59.8% | W 79-73 ✓ |
| Mar 06, 2026 | vs FC Bayern Munich | W Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 73.9% | L 80-85 ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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