FC Bayern Munich
Euroleague ELO profile, season simulation & model record · 11 seasons covered
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, playoffs and Final Four included. Euroleague ELO is season-relative in our engine: every team starts each season at 0, so the value reads as a gap to that season's league average and negative numbers are normal, not a red flag. Because of the re-seed, trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position that day.
Season simulation
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Missed the playoffs 17W–21L regular season
Full Euroleague simulation: every team's odds and the projected bracket →
How predictable is FC Bayern Munich?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted games season backtest
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, FC Bayern Munich was 6.4% harder to call than the Euroleague average. A team can be easy to call while losing: a predictable season is not a good season. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | Euroleague avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 season backtest | 32 | 62.5% | 67.0% | 66.7% (league 75.8%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 FC Bayern Munich won 3 games as a clear underdog (we gave them 35% or less) and lost 2 as a clear favourite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 38 | #11 | -16 | +34 | +2 |
| 2024-25 | 36 | #11 | +16 | +72 | -24 |
| 2023-24 | 34 | #17 | +18 | +30 | -126 |
| 2022-23 | 34 | #17 | -34 | +2 | -122 |
| 2021-22 | 36 | #9 | -5 | +33 | +14 |
| 2020-21 | 39 | #7 | -14 | +89 | +62 |
| 2019-20 | 28 | #18 | +19 | +33 | -178 |
| 2018-19 | 30 | #12 | -39 | +4 | -60 |
| 2015-16 | 10 | #18 | -15 | +24 | -40 |
| 2014-15 | 10 | #21 | -8 | +7 | -101 |
| 2013-14 | 24 | #15 | +40 | +59 | -67 |
GP counts every Euroleague game in the corpus including the playoffs and the Final Four. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank on its last game day of that season, ranked against every team's last known rating on that date. Start, Peak and End are season-relative ELO values (each season re-seeds at 0). The "as" line appears when the team's registered name changed, which in the Euroleague usually means a new title sponsor rather than a new team.
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justus Hollatz | SG | 16 | 11.4 |
| Andreas Obst | PG | 23 | 9.6 |
| Oscar Da Silva | SF | 17 | 8.4 |
| Isiaha Mike | PF | 19 | 3.2 |
| Vladimir Lucic | PF | 27 | 0.7 |
Every FC Bayern Munich player with a predictability profile: started games only, 15-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points, rebounds and PIR against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | at FC Barcelona | L FC Bayern Munich 41.9% | L 69-95 ✓ |
| Apr 09, 2026 | at Olimpia Milano | L FC Bayern Munich 33.0% | W 94-84 ✗ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | at Virtus Bologna | L FC Bayern Munich 44.3% | W 85-80 ✗ |
| Apr 01, 2026 | vs Fenerbahce Istanbul | W FC Bayern Munich 53.3% | W 85-76 ✓ |
| Mar 26, 2026 | vs ASVEL Villeurbanne | W FC Bayern Munich 72.8% | W 93-83 ✓ |
| Mar 24, 2026 | at Zalgiris Kaunas | L FC Bayern Munich 28.9% | L 71-78 ✓ |
| Mar 19, 2026 | vs Dubai Basketball | W FC Bayern Munich 51.2% | L 74-87 ✗ |
| Mar 12, 2026 | vs Anadolu Efes Istanbul | W FC Bayern Munich 69.2% | L 80-81 ✗ |
| Mar 06, 2026 | at Crvena Zvezda Belgrade | L FC Bayern Munich 26.1% | W 85-80 ✗ |
| Feb 26, 2026 | at Real Madrid | L FC Bayern Munich 24.5% | L 70-93 ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Euroleague team ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/euroleague-teams/fc-bayern-munich">Euroleague team ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/euroleague-teams/fc-bayern-munich">Euroleague team ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>