Anadolu Efes Istanbul vs Besiktas Istanbul Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · October 22, 2026

Anadolu Efes Istanbul

Home
63.4%
VS

Besiktas Istanbul

Away
36.6%
Regular Season EuroLeague 2026-27

Why the Model Favors Anadolu Efes Istanbul

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home court +14.2 Anadolu Efes Istanbul
Scoring & shooting +3.6 Besiktas Istanbul
Rebounding & paint presence +1.3 Anadolu Efes Istanbul
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +0.8 Besiktas Istanbul

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 63% for Anadolu Efes Istanbul. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

Per-player expected lines and full probability distributions, including PIR, EuroLeague's signature box-score metric. Click a player to view their full distributions.

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HOMEAnadolu Efes Istanbul

PTS8.0 REB2.1 AST2.1 3PM1.3 PIR8.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS15.1 REB2.2 AST3.4 3PM1.9 PIR15.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS14.9 REB5.5 AST2.1 3PM1.2 PIR18.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS9.0 REB4.0 AST2.0 3PM0.7 PIR12.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS7.8 REB5.6 AST1.6 3PM0.0 PIR11.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)

AWAYBesiktas Istanbul

PTS9.5 REB2.4 AST3.9 3PM1.2 PIR11.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS12.5 REB3.0 AST2.1 3PM1.2 PIR10.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS7.6 REB2.7 AST1.7 3PM1.6 PIR8.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS8.1 REB3.7 AST1.8 3PM1.6 PIR9.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS9.2 REB6.0 AST0.9 3PM0.0 PIR14.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)

Starting Five Matchup

1
Pj Dozier Guard
PTS
8.0
PIR
8.5
REB
2.1
VS
Devon Dotson Guard
PTS
9.5
PIR
11.4
REB
2.4
2
Matthew Strazel Guard
PTS
15.1
PIR
15.5
REB
2.2
VS
Jaylen Nowell Guard
PTS
12.5
PIR
10.8
REB
3.0
3
Dario Saric Forward
PTS
14.9
PIR
18.7
REB
5.5
VS
Anthony Brown Forward
PTS
7.6
PIR
8.4
REB
2.7
4
Collin Malcolm Forward
PTS
9.0
PIR
12.1
REB
4.0
VS
Conor Morgan Center
PTS
8.1
PIR
9.3
REB
3.7
5
Bruno Fernando Center
PTS
7.8
PIR
11.2
REB
5.6
VS
Ante Zizic Center
PTS
9.2
PIR
14.1
REB
6.0
1-5 = projected starter slot, the order the model expects the five to be named · PTS = Projected Points · PIR = Performance Index Rating (all-round impact) · REB = Projected Rebounds

Key Prediction Insights

Anadolu Efes Istanbul is favored to beat Besiktas Istanbul, with a 63% chance of winning. The projected margin is narrow, despite Efes having home court.

Total Points & Spread Analysis

The expected total is 176 points, a forecast of a high-scoring game. Efes is projected to win by 3, pointing to a close finish rather than a comfortable home victory.

Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).

Total Points · expected 175.9

Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)

Spread (Anadolu Efes Istanbul − Besiktas Istanbul) · expected +2.9

Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings are falling over their last five games: Efes is down 21 points and Besiktas is down 17.

Anadolu Efes Istanbul

+0 +12 over last 5 games

Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).

Besiktas Istanbul

-13 -35 over last 5 games

Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).

EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings

See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.

View Full ELO Ratings

Game Analysis

Home court is the clearest separator in the forecast, while Besiktas has the advantage in scoring and shooting. Efes also has a smaller projected edge in rebounding and paint presence, so its ability to make that advantage count could help decide a game expected to stay close.

Dario Saric is projected for 15 points and 6 rebounds, giving Efes a strong all-around option. Matthew Strazel is projected for 15 points and 3 assists, adding scoring and playmaking. For Besiktas, Jaylen Nowell is projected for 13 points, while Devon Dotson’s 4 projected assists could help create scoring chances. Efes comes off a win after two losses, while Besiktas has alternated wins and losses across its recent three games.

Final Prediction

If Besiktas’s scoring and shooting edge outpaces Efes’s home-court advantage, the visitors can turn a narrow forecast into a win. Efes’s projected rebounding edge offers a route to hold the margin.

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