NBA 2025-2026: Indiana Pacers vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Indiana Pacers
Home Team
27.1%
VS
Philadelphia 76ers
Away Team
72.9%
Key Prediction Insights
Philadelphia 76ers are the pick to win (72.9% probability). Expected starting fives — Indiana: Andrew Nembhard (OFF 112.2 / DEF 121.6, 17.24 PPG), Ben Sheppard (116.0 / 119.1, 6.81 PPG), Kam Jones (110.4 / 123.7, 3.48 PPG), Jarace Walker (99.8 / 116.7, 10.82 PPG), Jay Huff (111.1 / 113.6, 9.00 PPG). Philadelphia: Tyrese Maxey (122.3 / 115.3, 29.04 PPG), VJ Edgecombe (112.0 / 116.0, 15.13 PPG), Dominick Barlow (127.8 / 115.7, 8.37 PPG), Kelly Oubre Jr. (109.8 / 116.4, 14.43 PPG), Joel Embiid (117.5 / 114.5, 26.61 PPG).
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects 235.07 combined points, which points to a fairly high-scoring game and an uptempo finish where both teams can score. The expected spread is -8.53 (home - away), meaning Philadelphia is favored by roughly 8.5 points and should hold a clear advantage on their court.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
235.1
Most likely outcome: 235 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Indiana Pacers - Philadelphia 76ers)
-8.5
Most likely outcome: -9 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Indiana comes in on a three-game losing streak (130-134, 118-131, 105-112). Their scoring has dipped across those games (130, 118, 105) while allowing an average of about 125.7 points, suggesting defensive struggles. Philadelphia is 1-2 in the last three (135-108 win, 111-126 loss, 107-117 loss), showing they can explode offensively (135) but have been inconsistent on defense the last two outings.
Looking at the projected starting units, Indiana’s five average out to an offensive rating of about 109.90, defensive rating around 118.94, and an average of 9.47 points made per starter. Philadelphia’s starters average roughly a 117.88 offensive rating, 115.58 defensive rating, and 18.72 points made per starter. Those gaps — a higher offensive profile and more scoring from Philadelphia’s starters — help explain the sizable 8.53-point edge for the 76ers.
Final Prediction
Philadelphia’s stronger offensive numbers and higher-scoring starters give them the clear edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid’s ability to sustain the scoring pace that produced the 135-point outing — if they do, the 76ers should cover the spread.
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