Cincinnati OH, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Adrian Mannarino vs Tommy Paul Prediction

Adrian Mannarino

Rank: #89
28%
VS

Tommy Paul

Rank: #16
72%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

Player Metrics

Adrian Mannarino

Form Index: 59.4
ELO Rating: 798.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1661.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 330.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.2
Clay: 4.9
Grass: 6.3
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 87.5

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 59.3
ELO Rating: 2479.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1787.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 91.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.2
Clay: 24.2
Grass: 24.2
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 88.0

Recent Matches

Adrian Mannarino

  • Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (2-0) hard Cincinnati 90 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jordan Thompson (2-0) hard Cincinnati 88 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Dalibor Svrcina (2-0) hard Cincinnati 90 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Mitchell Krueger (2-0) hard Cincinnati 62 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Toronto 65 min

Tommy Paul

  • Last Match: vs Pedro Martinez (2-0) hard Cincinnati 91 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Sebastian Ofner (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Johannus Monday (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Daniel Evans (1-2) grass Eastbourne 134 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Adrian Mannarino
vs
0
Tommy Paul
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match in the Round of 32 at the Cincinnati Masters 1000 will feature Adrian Mannarino facing off against Tommy Paul on hard court. With Paul ranked 16th and holding a significant advantage in Elo rating and surface strength, he is predicted to win with a probability of 72.32%, while Mannarino has a 27.68% chance of victory. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is 22.

Match Analysis

Adrian Mannarino currently holds the 89th rank and has a form index of 59.35, supported by an Elo rating of 798.61. His cumulative fatigue stands at 330 minutes, indicating a challenging tournament run. Mannarino's surface strength index of 8.16 reflects limited effectiveness on hard courts, while his mean serve index of 96.63 and return index of 87.48 show decent performance in these areas. In contrast, Tommy Paul, ranked 16th, boasts a form index of 59.31, but his Elo rating of 2479.06 suggests a much stronger competitive level. With only 91 minutes of cumulative fatigue and a surface strength index of 18.16, Paul is clearly more acclimated to the demands of hard court play. Notably, Paul's mean return index of 87.98 is marginally better than Mannarino's, indicating his ability to capitalize on opponents' serves. In their last three matches, Mannarino has shown impressive form, winning all three against lower-ranked opponents, including a recent victory over Tomas Machac. Conversely, Tommy Paul's recent performances have been mixed, with one win and one loss in his last two outings, including a first-round exit at Wimbledon. However, his recent win against Pedro Martinez in Cincinnati demonstrates his potential to bounce back.

Final Prediction

Tommy Paul holds a definitive edge due to his higher ranking, better Elo rating, and superior surface strength index, alongside significantly lower fatigue levels. A critical factor to observe will be how well Mannarino can handle Paul's return game, as any lapses could be detrimental to his chances of winning.