Carlos Alcaraz
ATP ELO profile · tour-level matches since 2015
Season ELO trajectory
One point per match: the player's ELO rating after that match, matches in round order. Ratings are season-scoped: every January the engine re-seeds each player from ATP entry points, then updates after every result. That is why trajectories are shown one season at a time. Hover a point for the match behind it.
Career record
291-63 82.2% in 354 matches
Season by season
| Season | M | W-L | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37 | 32-5 | 2705 | 2720 | 2230 |
| 2025 | 71 | 64-7 | 2201 | 2529 | 2405 |
| 2024 | 53 | 43-10 | 2386 | 2392 | 2101 |
| 2023 | 73 | 63-10 | 2182 | 2301 | 2038 |
| 2022 | 67 | 55-12 | 1661 | 2264 | 2087 |
| 2021 | 49 | 33-16 | 1546 | 1966 | 1894 |
| 2020 | 3 | 1-2 | 1506 | 1530 | 1477 |
| 2019 | 1 | 0-1 | 1500 | 1480 | 1480 |
Recent matches
| Week | Tournament | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 07, 2026 | Shanghai · Hard | Zizou Bergs | L 0-2 |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W 2-0 | ||
| Sep 30, 2026 | Tokio · Hard | Jiri Lehecka | W 2-0 |
| Jaume Munar | W 2-1 | ||
| Denis Shapovalov | W 1-0 | ||
| Matteo Arnaldi | W 2-0 | ||
| Alex Michelsen | W 2-1 | ||
| Aug 30, 2026 | Us Open · Hard | Ben Shelton | L 2-3 |
| Tommy Paul | W 3-0 | ||
| Yibing Wu | W 3-0 |
Serve predictions: how close do we get on Carlos Alcaraz?
Comparison covers 66 of the 71 aces projections we made in 2025. A match needs five earlier matches on record before the baseline exists.
The baseline predicts a player's aces as the average of their last five matches. Our model beats it when its projections land closer to what actually happened. Both numbers are the average miss per match, so lower is better, and both are for the selected season only.
Predictability: does Carlos Alcaraz follow the script?
Straight sets · 2026| Season | M | W-L | Model hit | Upsets | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37 | 32-5 | 89.2% | 4 vs 7.7 exp | Straight sets |
| 2025 | 71 | 64-7 | 84.5% | 11 vs 18.2 exp | Straight sets |
| 2024 bt | 53 | 43-10 | 77.4% | 12 vs 7.4 exp | Wild card |
An upset = our model's favorite losing. "Upsets" compares how many actually happened in Carlos Alcaraz's matches with how many the model expected for that exact schedule. A season-level read (a wild-card season does not carry over year to year). How to read this · full board: most predictable ATP players.
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The ATP ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/tennis-power-rankings/carlos-alcaraz">ATP ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)