Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Aleksandar Vukic vs Rafael Jodar: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Aleksandar Vukic

Rank: #93
58%
VS

Rafael Jodar

Rank: #109
42%
Expected Total Games: 24.1
Predicted Winner: Aleksandar Vukic

Ranking Trends

Aleksandar Vukic

  • Current Rank: #93 (2026-03-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #82 (2025-12-15)
  • 6 Months Ago: #93 (2025-09-15)
  • 9 Months Ago: #83 (2025-06-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #77 (2025-03-17)

Rafael Jodar

  • Current Rank: #109 (2026-03-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #168 (2025-12-15)
  • 6 Months Ago: #325 (2025-09-15)
  • 9 Months Ago: #1000 (None)
  • 12 Months Ago: #901 (2025-03-03)

Player Metrics

Aleksandar Vukic

Form Index: 34.0
ELO Rating: 635.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1573.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 231.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.4
Clay: 4.8
Grass: 6.3
Serve Rating: 86.4
Return Rating: 41.9

Rafael Jodar

Form Index: 55.5
ELO Rating: 615.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1699.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 274.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.7
Clay: 3.1
Grass: 2.9
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 90.2

Recent Matches

Aleksandar Vukic
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Barrios Vera (0-2) hard Miami 102 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Billy Harris (2-0) hard Miami 129 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Dino Prizmic (0-2) hard Indian Wells 82 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Stefano Travaglia (2-0) hard Indian Wells 106 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Otto Virtanen (0-2) hard Dubai 59 min

Rafael Jodar
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Yannick Hanfmann (2-1) hard Miami 112 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Benjamin Bonzi (2-0) hard Miami 75 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Manas Dhamne (2-0) hard Miami 87 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (0-2) hard Indian Wells 58 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Terence Atmane (1-2) hard Acapulco 101 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Aleksandar Vukic
vs
0
Rafael Jodar
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Miami, Round of 64 on hard courts at a Masters 1000 event pits Aleksandar Vukic against Rafael Jodar in a matchup that blends differing momentum and styles. The model favors Aleksandar Vukic to win (58.10% vs 41.90%) with a predicted total of about 24.05 games, suggesting a relatively straight‑sets affair.

Match Analysis

Vukic arrives with the higher ranking (No. 93 vs No. 109) and a slightly stronger Elo (635.01 vs 614.99), and he has been marginally less taxed by match minutes in this tournament (231 vs 274). His form index is lower (34.02) compared with Jodar’s 55.49, and both players show minimal surface strength indices on hard (Vukic 5.43, Jodar 5.68), indicating neither has a pronounced hard‑court edge in the proprietary surface metric. The mean serve indices differ by more than five points—Jodar’s 96.08 to Vukic’s 86.41—so Jodar brings the bigger serving profile into the contest. There is also a large gap in mean return index (Jodar 90.24 vs Vukic 41.86), which is notable and likely to shape many exchanges. Recent form paints contrasting pictures: Vukic is inconsistent over his last three matches (one win, two losses), losing in Miami to Tomas Barrios Vera and in Indian Wells to Dino Prizmic but posting a straight‑sets win over Billy Harris. Jodar, by contrast, is on a three‑match winning streak in Miami (wins over Yannick Hanfmann, Benjamin Bonzi and Manas Dhamne), showing steadiness and confidence through varying match lengths.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.1 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match sits at a predicted aces total of about 10.57; expected double faults are forecast around 4.47. On a medium‑pace hard court with a consistent bounce, that ace total is plausible—hard courts neither inflate aces as grass does nor dampen them as clay can. Given Jodar’s significantly higher mean serve index, he is the likeliest source of the bulk of the aces, which could lift the overall ace count for the contest.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Vukic’s edge in ranking, slightly superior Elo and fresher legs explain the narrow projection in his favor despite Jodar’s hotter recent form and bigger serve. The key factor to watch is how Jodar’s serve and high return index translate into free points and breaks; if they click he can swing the match, otherwise Vukic’s steadier profile should carry him through.

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