Andrea Pellegrino vs Alex Barrena: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Pellegrino arrives with the higher ranking (137) and a substantially higher Elo (444.02) than Barrena (rank 183, Elo 307.72). Pellegrino’s form index (42.80) is slightly better than Barrena’s (36.64), but his cumulative fatigue is markedly higher (259 minutes vs 148 minutes), largely driven by a marathon 178-minute win in the last round. Both players show very low surface strength indexes on clay (Pellegrino 3.37, Barrena 3.15), suggesting neither is a pronounced clay specialist in the available data. Serve and return profiles set up an intriguing contrast: Barrena’s mean serve index (93.27) is significantly higher than Pellegrino’s (79.54), a difference greater than 5 points that favors Barrena on serve, while Pellegrino’s mean return index (99.57) is markedly stronger than Barrena’s (86.67), also a gap above 5 points. Recent form shows Pellegrino with two wins in Santiago (including the long 178-minute match) and one prior loss in Rio, whereas Barrena has two straight wins in Santiago (relatively quick matches of 70 and 78 minutes) and a recent three-set loss in Buenos Aires. Barrena’s fresher legs and big-serve profile contrast with Pellegrino’s superior return ability but heavier workload.