Rotterdam Netherlands Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Luka Pavlovic vs Botic van de Zandschulp: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Luka Pavlovic

Rank: #219
30%
VS

Botic van de Zandschulp

Rank: #67
70%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Botic van de Zandschulp

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Ranking Trends

Luka Pavlovic

  • Current #219 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #215 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #191 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #238 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #365 2025-02-10

Botic van de Zandschulp

  • Current #67 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #78 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #92 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #85 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #85 2025-02-10

Player Metrics

Luka Pavlovic

Form Index: 37.8
ELO Rating: 330.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1518.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 224.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 0.7
Clay: 1.3
Grass: 1.3
Serve Rating: 50.6
Return Rating: 40.5

Botic van de Zandschulp

Form Index: 44.4
ELO Rating: 887.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1575.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.2
Clay: 6.1
Grass: 6.5
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 94.1

Recent Matches

Luka Pavlovic
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Botic van de Zandschulp
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Luka Pavlovic
vs
0
Botic van de Zandschulp
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 32 match in Rotterdam (Netherlands) is played on indoor hard courts at an ATP 500-level event, a surface that rewards both service power and consistent returning. The model favors Botic van de Zandschulp to win — probability: Botic 70.08%, Luka Pavlovic 29.92% — with a predicted total of about 23.95 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The two players present a clear experience and performance gap. Pavlovic is ranked 219 with a form index of 37.77 and an Elo of 330.78; he carries 224 minutes of fatigue from this tournament and posts a surface strength index of 0.657. Van de Zandschulp is ranked 67 with a higher form index (44.35) and a far superior Elo (887.71); he shows no cumulative fatigue and a surface strength index of 9.24. The difference in mean serve index is large (Botic 97.60 vs Pavlovic 50.64), and the mean return index gap is equally pronounced (Botic 94.09 vs Pavlovic 40.53), both exceeding 5 points and favoring van de Zandschulp. Recent form underlines the contrast: Pavlovic has won two of his last three matches at Rotterdam (including a three-set win over Hamad Medjedovic and a straight-sets victory vs Billy Harris) but lost at the Australian Open to Colton Smith. Van de Zandschulp has one win in his last three (a straight-sets win over Juncheng Shang) and recent losses to Ugo Humbert and Novak Djokovic; those defeats came against higher-level opposition and include longer matches at Grand Slam and indoor events.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Luka Pavlovic - Botic van de Zandschulp) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Botic van de Zandschulp wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is about 10.06 total, with an expected double faults figure near 5.63. On medium-paced hard courts, predicted aces are moderate compared with grass, and the expected double faults reflect both players’ serving tendencies. Given van de Zandschulp’s substantially higher serve index, he is likely to drive a larger share of the predicted aces, which will factor into the overall serve dynamics and the expected double faults count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Van de Zandschulp’s higher Elo, superior serve and return indices, and fresher legs give him the edge in Rotterdam. The key factor to watch will be whether Pavlovic can neutralize Botic’s serve with aggressive returning early in rallies.

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