Damir Dzumhur vs Gael Monfils: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Dzumhur arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 60) with an Elo of 752.76 and a form index of 36.99; his surface strength index on hard courts is 5.45 and cumulative fatigue is zero. Monfils is ranked 170 with an Elo of 700.89 and a much lower form index of 5.85, but also reports zero fatigue and a slightly higher surface strength index of 7.68. There is a marked difference in serving and returning: Monfils’s mean serve index (97.42) exceeds Dzumhur’s (70.46) by about 27 points, and his mean return index (89.64) exceeds Dzumhur’s (64.81) by roughly 25 points—both gaps are significant and likely to shape key moments. Over the last three matches Dzumhur has one win (against Pedro Martinez) and two losses, all on clay, with varied match lengths including a 159-minute contest. Monfils’s last three recorded matches on hard courts and elsewhere show three defeats, though he took a set in each outing; his most recent was a long 174-minute match at the Australian Open. These recent results point to match-readiness questions for both players, but the statistical edge in serve and return metrics sits with Monfils.