Paris France Hard Masters 1000 Finals

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner Prediction

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #10
23%
VS

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #2
77%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

Ranking Trends

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current Rank: #10 (2025-10-27)
  • 3 Months Ago: #28 (2025-07-28)
  • 6 Months Ago: #19 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #23 (2025-01-27)
  • 12 Months Ago: #27 (2024-10-28)

Jannik Sinner

  • Current Rank: #2 (2025-10-27)
  • 3 Months Ago: #1 (2025-07-28)
  • 6 Months Ago: #1 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #1 (2025-01-27)
  • 12 Months Ago: #1 (2024-10-28)

Player Metrics

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 63.0
ELO Rating: 1644.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1724.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 627.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.9
Clay: 13.0
Grass: 12.0
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 85.4

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 68.1
ELO Rating: 11095.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2170.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 303.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 96.9
Clay: 97.8
Grass: 98.9
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 89.0

Recent Matches

Felix Auger-Aliassime
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Bublik (2-0) hard Paris 96 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Vacherot (2-0) hard Paris 78 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-1) hard Paris 131 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexandre Muller (2-1) hard Paris 184 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (2-1) hard Paris 138 min

Jannik Sinner
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Zverev (1-0) hard Paris 62 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (2-0) hard Paris 69 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Cerundolo (2-0) hard Paris 85 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (2-0) hard Paris 87 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Zverev (2-1) hard Vienna 148 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Felix Auger-Aliassime
vs
2
Jannik Sinner
Hard
0 - 2
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the finals of the Masters 1000 tournament in Paris, Jannik Sinner faces Felix Auger-Aliassime on hard courts. With Sinner ranked 2nd and Auger-Aliassime at 10th, the match is set to be a high-stakes encounter. Jannik Sinner is predicted to win with a probability of 76.79%, while Felix Auger-Aliassime stands at 23.21%. The anticipated total number of games played is 22.0.

Match Analysis

Jannik Sinner's rank of 2nd and a form index of 68.14 indicate his strong competitive edge. His Elo rating of 11095.28 and a relatively low fatigue level of 303 minutes suggest he is well-rested compared to his opponent. Furthermore, Sinner's surface strength index of 96.93 highlights his proficiency on hard courts. In contrast, Auger-Aliassime, ranked 10th, has a lower form index of 63.04 and a significantly higher fatigue level of 627 minutes, which could impact his performance. The mean serve index difference is minimal, with Sinner at 96.05 and Auger-Aliassime at 97.49. However, Sinner's mean return index of 88.97 exceeds Auger-Aliassime's 85.41 by more than 5 points, demonstrating his superior return game. In their recent performances, Sinner has been exceptional, winning all of his last three matches convincingly without dropping a set. Notably, he dispatched Alexander Zverev in just 62 minutes in the last round. Auger-Aliassime has also shown strong form, winning his last three matches but faced slightly tougher battles, including a longer match against Daniel Altmaier that lasted 131 minutes. This could suggest that Auger-Aliassime has been working harder to secure his victories.

Final Prediction

Jannik Sinner's superior ranking, form, and lower fatigue levels provide him with a distinct advantage heading into the finals. His strong return game will be a critical factor to watch, as it could dictate the flow of the match and challenge Auger-Aliassime's serve. The match promises to be a compelling contest, but Sinner's current form and fitness suggest he is the likely winner.