Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Jakub Mensik vs Rafael Jodar: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #18
70%
VS

Rafael Jodar

Rank: #150
30%
Expected Total Games: 37.8
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

Player Metrics

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 85.8
ELO Rating: 2130.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1628.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.9
Clay: 15.4
Grass: 15.7
Serve Rating: 73.0
Return Rating: 52.0

Rafael Jodar

Form Index: 95.7
ELO Rating: 447.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1763.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.2
Clay: 3.0
Grass: 3.0
Serve Rating: 91.4
Return Rating: 93.1

Recent Matches

Jakub Mensik

  • Last Match: vs Pablo Carreno Busta (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Sebastian Baez (2-0) hard Auckland 82 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Fabian Marozsan (2-1) hard Auckland 127 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (2-0) hard Auckland 65 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Hamad Medjedovic (2-1) hard Auckland 134 min

Rafael Jodar

  • Last Match: vs Rei Sakamoto (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Chris Rodesch (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Luca Van Assche (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Li Tu (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jakub Mensik
vs
0
Rafael Jodar
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the Australian Open, taking place on hard courts in Australia, Jakub Mensik is set to face Rafael Jodar. With a strong probability of winning at 69.77%, Mensik is favored over Jodar, who holds a 30.23% chance. The match is expected to be competitive, with a predicted total of approximately 37.82 games.

Match Analysis

Jakub Mensik holds a significantly higher ranking at 18 compared to Rafael Jodar’s rank of 150. Mensik’s form index of 85.81 indicates solid recent performance, while Jodar, despite a higher form index of 95.70, has a lower Elo rating of 447.57 against Mensik's 2130.86, suggesting a disparity in overall skill levels. Mensik's cumulative fatigue is relatively low at 174 minutes, while Jodar's fatigue at 696 minutes may hinder his performance. Additionally, Mensik boasts a surface strength index of 15.93, reflecting his capability on hard courts, while Jodar’s index of 4.15 indicates a lower effectiveness on this surface. The difference in their mean serve indices—Mensik at 72.97 and Jodar at 91.44—suggests that Jodar may have an advantage in serving strength. In their recent performances, Mensik has demonstrated resilience, winning all three of his last matches, including a tough five-set battle against Pablo Carreno Busta in the Australian Open. In contrast, Jodar has also been successful, winning his last three matches, but the nature of these matches and his higher fatigue level may put him at a disadvantage against the fresher Mensik.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.8 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to yield around 15.92 predicted aces and 5.94 expected double faults. Given the hard court surface, which tends to favor balanced play between servers and returners, we can anticipate a moderate number of aces. Jodar’s higher mean serve index may increase his chances for aces; however, his fatigue could lead to more double faults as well.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Jakub Mensik's edge in ranking, lower fatigue levels, and recent performances make him the likely winner in this matchup. A key factor to observe will be how Jodar’s serve holds up against Mensik’s strong returns, especially as fatigue becomes a critical element in the latter stages of the match.

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