Kyrian Jacquet vs Vilius Gaubas: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Jacquet is driven chiefly by surface fit (+7.0 percentage points) and his combined serve & return game (+4.4). Jacquet’s slightly better surface strength index (19.46 vs 17.27) and a higher form index (74.18 vs 64.69) underpin that surface fit advantage on grass, where low, skidding bounce rewards flatter, well-timed striking. The serve indices are almost identical (95.09 vs 94.98), so this will not be a serve-dominance mismatch, but Jacquet’s mean return index (93.72) is meaningfully higher than Gaubas’s (87.72) — a gap of about six points that the model flagged as important even on a fast surface where returns have less time to operate. Recent results also tilt toward Jacquet (+4.0): he’s progressed through qualifying and early rounds in straighter sets (three wins, including a 3-0 last match), whereas Gaubas has also won three matches but with longer encounters (a five-setter among them), which the model interpreted as slightly more physically taxing despite equal cumulative fatigue totals (522 minutes each). Head-to-head factors add another +2.8 to Jacquet’s chance, while age gives a small +2.2 boost to Gaubas’ probability.