Matias Soto vs Vilius Gaubas: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

On paper Gaubas is the stronger player: he sits at world rank 107 versus Soto’s 316, with a substantially higher form index (52.33 vs 21.81) and a far larger Elo rating (458.33 vs 122.0). Fatigue is a factor — Gaubas has accumulated 156 minutes on court in this event while Soto is fresh (0 minutes) — but the overall profile still tilts toward Gaubas. Both players have low surface strength indices on clay by the provided scale, though Gaubas’ 5.09 is meaningfully above Soto’s 0.27. Serve and return profiles diverge sharply. Gaubas’ mean serve index (96.48) is dramatically higher than Soto’s (19.04), a difference well over 5 points and likely to shape the match. Soto’s mean return index is given as 100.0 versus Gaubas’ 93.04, another difference above 5 points; this suggests Soto’s return skills (per the index) could test Gaubas despite the serve disparity. Recent form: Soto’s only recorded match in the last three was a straight-sets loss to Juan Manuel Cerundolo in Santiago (80 minutes). Gaubas is 1-2 across his last three, beating Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva (86 minutes) but losing to Alex Barrena (70 minutes) and Tomas Martin Etcheverry (127 minutes).