Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Jodar comes mainly from surface fit and recent results at this level. Although Carreno Busta posts a higher surface-strength index on paper (13.62 vs Jodar’s 10.24), the engine attributes Jodar’s grass suitability to his elite serve and return metrics and his recent Wimbledon form. Jodar’s mean serve and return indices are both outstanding (~96), numbers that translate well to the low, fast bounces on grass and help explain the +12.2 percentage-point surface factor for him. Recent-record-by-level is the next biggest driver (+12.0 to Jodar): Jodar arrives having won his opening Wimbledon match in straight sets and holds a recent 3–2 victory over Carreno Busta in a grand-slam setting. Rank and ratings also favor Jodar (Rank 26, Elo 1917) versus Carreno (Rank 70, Elo 1741). Fatigue is equal between them (both 174 minutes on court this tournament). Note the return gap: Jodar’s mean return index (96.20) is substantially higher than Carreno’s (86.47), a difference likely to matter on return games; serve indices are similar (95.97 vs 95.21), so no big serving index disparity. The model nonetheless gives Carreno a small tilt on “overall strength” (+4.3 to Carreno), likely driven by his slightly higher form index (80.09 vs 76.53). Summing last three matches: Jodar — straight-sets Wimbledon win over Felix Gill, a loss to Zverev at Roland Garros, and the 3–2 grand-slam win over Carreno; Carreno — a Wimbledon win over Shapovalov, the 3–2 loss to Jodar at Roland Garros, and a prior clay win over Tirante.