Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Rei Sakamoto vs Rafael Jodar: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Rei Sakamoto

Rank: #200
53%
VS

Rafael Jodar

Rank: #165
47%
Expected Total Games: 37.5
Predicted Winner: Rei Sakamoto

Player Metrics

Rei Sakamoto

Form Index: 81.1
ELO Rating: 406.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1522.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.3
Clay: 1.6
Grass: 1.6
Serve Rating: 67.8
Return Rating: 56.3

Rafael Jodar

Form Index: 88.0
ELO Rating: 416.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1734.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.8
Clay: 3.0
Grass: 3.0
Serve Rating: 90.9
Return Rating: 94.3

Recent Matches

Rei Sakamoto

  • Last Match: vs Giulio Zeppieri (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Colton Smith (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Daniel Evans (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Lorenzo Sonego (0-2) hard Hong Kong 105 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Mark Lajal (0-2) hard Stockholm 87 min

Rafael Jodar

  • Last Match: vs Chris Rodesch (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Luca Van Assche (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Li Tu (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Rei Sakamoto
vs
0
Rafael Jodar
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The first-round match at the Australian Open features Rei Sakamoto facing off against Rafael Jodar on hard courts in Australia. With a slight edge in prediction, Rei Sakamoto is anticipated to win with a probability of 52.87%, while Rafael Jodar has a 47.13% chance of victory. The match is expected to see a total of around 37.54 games played.

Match Analysis

Rei Sakamoto, currently ranked 200, has a form index of 81.15 and an Elo rating of 406.64, suggesting he is performing well despite his low ranking. His cumulative fatigue stands at 522 minutes, indicating he has had a consistent run in the tournament so far. With a surface strength index of 2.27, Sakamoto shows moderate capabilities on hard courts, alongside a mean serve index of 67.83 and a mean return index of 56.29. In contrast, Rafael Jodar, ranked 165, boasts a higher form index of 88.02 and an Elo rating of 416.48, reflecting slightly better performance metrics. Jodar's surface strength index is notably higher at 3.80, showing greater adaptability on hard courts, and he possesses a mean serve index of 90.95 and a mean return index of 94.28, indicating a significant advantage in serve capabilities. Both players have shown good form in their recent matches, with Sakamoto winning his last three games convincingly, not dropping a set. Jodar, too, has won his last three matches, although he faced a tougher challenge against Luca Van Assche, winning two sets to one. This consistent winning streak is a positive indicator for both players, but Sakamoto’s recent performances could give him the psychological edge.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.5 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is predicted to see approximately 18.21 aces, which aligns well with the characteristics of hard courts that balance both serving power and return strength. The expected double faults in the match stand at about 4.12, reflecting the pressure both players will face in maintaining service games. Given Jodar's significantly higher mean serve index, he may be more likely to accumulate a higher ace count, which could play a critical role in the match dynamics.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.2 Most likely: 18 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Rei Sakamoto's slight edge in predictive analytics stems from his recent form and ability to maintain a strong performance without dropping sets. A key factor to monitor during the match will be how effectively Jodar can leverage his superior serving capabilities against Sakamoto’s solid return game.

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