Buenos Aires Argentina Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Tomas Barrios Vera vs Thiago Seyboth Wild: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tomas Barrios Vera

Rank: #112
53%
VS

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Rank: #198
47%
Expected Total Games: 22.6
Predicted Winner: Tomas Barrios Vera

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Ranking Trends

Tomas Barrios Vera

  • Current #112 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #111 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #131 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #118 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #138 2025-02-10

Thiago Seyboth Wild

  • Current #198 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #217 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #137 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #120 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #77 2025-02-10

Player Metrics

Tomas Barrios Vera

Form Index: 35.8
ELO Rating: 519.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1537.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.8
Clay: 4.0
Grass: 3.4
Serve Rating: 64.1
Return Rating: 75.2

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Form Index: 31.8
ELO Rating: 285.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1571.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 353.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.7
Clay: 3.6
Grass: 2.3
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 88.5

Recent Matches

Tomas Barrios Vera
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Michael Zheng (1-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Benjamin Hassan (0-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Michelsen (0-2) hard Toronto 116 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Gael Monfils (2-1) hard Toronto 166 min

Thiago Seyboth Wild
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Andrea Pellegrino (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 122 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Andrea Collarini (2-1) clay Buenos Aires 231 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Francesco Maestrelli (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alvaro Guillen Meza (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Dmitry Popko (0-2) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Barrios Vera
vs
0
Thiago Seyboth Wild
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 32 match in Buenos Aires (Argentina), played on clay at a 250-level event, pits Tomas Barrios Vera against Thiago Seyboth Wild. The model gives Barrios Vera the edge: predicted winner Tomas Barrios Vera 53.13% vs Thiago Seyboth Wild 46.87%, with an expected total of about 22.6 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Barrios Vera arrives ranked 112 with a form index of 35.75 and an Elo of 519.81; he shows low tournament fatigue (0 minutes) and a surface strength index of 3.97. Seyboth Wild is ranked 198, form index 31.77, and a much lower Elo of 285.58, but carries significant fatigue (353 minutes) from prior matches and a similar surface strength index of 3.58. The large gap in mean serve index (Barrios 64.14 vs Seyboth Wild 97.55) is notable and may influence service rhythm; there is also a sizeable difference in mean return index (Barrios 75.20 vs Seyboth Wild 88.48), both differences exceeding 5 points. Recent results are mixed for both players. Over the last three matches Barrios Vera is 1–2 (a win over Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg at the Australian Open and losses to Michael Zheng and Benjamin Hassan), while Seyboth Wild is also 1–2 (a win over Andrea Collarini in Buenos Aires and losses to Andrea Pellegrino and Francesco Maestrelli). Seyboth Wild’s Buenos Aires run included a lengthy 231-minute win, which helps explain his accumulated match minutes and could affect his movement and serving late in rallies.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.6 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tomas Barrios Vera - Thiago Seyboth Wild) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is high in absolute terms but should be viewed against clay’s characteristics: predicted aces 19.38 and expected double faults 5.72 for the match. Clay tends to reduce ace rates due to slower ball speed and higher bounce, so the predicted aces may be inflated by Seyboth Wild’s much higher serve index; his big-serve profile could drive a larger share of the predicted aces. The expected double faults figure also reflects fatigue risk, particularly for the player with 353 minutes on court.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.4 Most likely: 19 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Barrios Vera’s higher Elo, lower tournament fatigue and stronger recent form give him a narrow edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be how Seyboth Wild’s serving (and any service-related errors late in points) holds up on clay given his accumulated minutes.

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