Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Round of 16

Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Vilius Gaubas: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #54
63%
VS

Vilius Gaubas

Rank: #127
37%
Expected Total Games: 22.8
Predicted Winner: Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Ranking Trends

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Current Rank: #54 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #60 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #58 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #55 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #43 (2025-02-17)

Vilius Gaubas

  • Current Rank: #127 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #130 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #163 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #136 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #181 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 54.0
ELO Rating: 973.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1639.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 156.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.9
Clay: 8.3
Grass: 7.1
Serve Rating: 77.3
Return Rating: 56.4

Vilius Gaubas

Form Index: 66.2
ELO Rating: 478.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1544.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 357.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.4
Clay: 5.3
Grass: 3.8
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 92.1

Recent Matches

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (2-1) clay Rio 156 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 111 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Tabilo (2-1) clay Buenos Aires 126 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Roman Andres Burruchaga (2-1) clay Buenos Aires 217 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Andrea Pellegrino (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 98 min

Vilius Gaubas
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Guto Miguel (2-1) clay Rio 131 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Francesco Passaro (2-0) clay Rio 97 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Andrea Pellegrino (2-0) clay Rio 129 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jason Kubler (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Nicolas Moreno De Alboran (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
vs
0
Vilius Gaubas
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 16 clay-court match in Rio, Brazil at a 500-level event pits Tomas Martin Etcheverry against Vilius Gaubas. The model favors Etcheverry to win (62.83% vs 37.17%) with a predicted total of about 22.84 games, suggesting a match that could be decided in straight sets or a competitive two-set affair.

Match Analysis

Etcheverry enters ranked 54 with an Elo of 973.35 and a form index of ~54.0; his surface strength index is 8.26 and cumulative tournament court time is 156 minutes. Gaubas is ranked 127 with an Elo of 478.94 and a higher form index (~66.2), but carries substantially more fatigue (357 minutes) and has a slightly lower surface strength index of 5.31. The mean serve index gap is notable: Gaubas (96.07) versus Etcheverry (77.27), a difference greater than 5 points that favors Gaubas on serve. There is also a large gap in mean return index (Gaubas 92.14 vs Etcheverry 56.41), which the data indicates is meaningful and should shape baseline exchanges. Recent form contrasts: Etcheverry has two wins and one loss across his last three clay matches, including a three-set victory in the previous round in Rio (156 minutes) and a loss to Francisco Cerundolo in Buenos Aires. Gaubas arrives on a three-match winning streak in Rio, with straight-set wins in earlier rounds and a 2-1 victory in the most recent match. The combination of Gaubas’ serving and return indices and his run of wins while accumulating significant minutes makes fatigue a potential variable.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.8 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction for the match is roughly 16.86 total, while the predicted aces will likely be influenced by Gaubas’ superior serve rating. The expected double faults are 5.74; clay’s slower bounce typically reduces ace frequency and can increase expected double faults due to longer rallies and fatigue. Given Gaubas’ much higher mean serve index, he is the likeliest contributor to the predicted aces, but surface conditions temper that advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Etcheverry’s higher ranking, Elo and better surface strength, combined with lower accumulated fatigue, provide the edge in the forecast. A decisive factor to watch is how Gaubas’ powerful serve and elite return indices hold up against Etcheverry’s baseline play and ability to break rhythm on clay.

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