Beijing Beijing, CHN Hard Wta 1000 Round of 32

Belinda Bencic vs Ann Li Prediction

Belinda Bencic

Rank: #12
70%
VS

Ann Li

Rank: #30
30%
Expected Total Games: 21.3
Predicted Winner: Belinda Bencic

Why the Model Favors Belinda Bencic

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +12.9 Belinda Bencic
Overall strength +4.4 Belinda Bencic
Recent form +1.8 Belinda Bencic
Serve & return game +1.4 Ann Li
Surface fit +1.0 Belinda Bencic

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 70% for Belinda Bencic. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Belinda Bencic

  • Current #12 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #11 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #12 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #11 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #16 2025-09-29

Ann Li

  • Current #30 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #29 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #37 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #38 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #47 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Belinda Bencic

Form Index: 34.5
ELO Rating: 1837.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1891.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 102.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.3
Clay: 42.0
Grass: 53.0
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 91.2

Ann Li

Form Index: 50.1
ELO Rating: 1729.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1723.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 75.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.8
Clay: 29.4
Grass: 16.1
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 86.6

Recent Matches

Belinda Bencic
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Ann Li
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ashlyn Krueger (2-0) hard Beijing 75 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Linda Noskova (1-2) hard Us Open 120 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Donna Vekic (2-1) hard Us Open 120 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Antonia Ruzic (2-0) hard Us Open 120 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Diane Parry (0-2) hard Monterrey 123 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Belinda Bencic
vs
1
Ann Li
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Bencic is favored to reach the semifinals, with a 70% chance of winning to Li’s 30%, and the match is projected to last 21.3 games. The quarterfinal in Beijing is expected to be competitive, though the forecast gives Bencic a clear advantage.

Match Analysis

The strongest distinction is Bencic’s recent record at this level, backed by her higher ranking and greater overall strength. She also arrives off a straight-sets win over Anastasia Zakharova, while Li’s latest match was a straight-sets victory over Ashlyn Krueger. Li’s serve is a counterweight, but Bencic is the stronger returner and has the better fit on hard courts. Those qualities could help her put more pressure on Li’s service games, even if Li has shown she can win comfortably in Beijing.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.3 Most likely outcome: 20 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Belinda Bencic - Ann Li) +1.1 Most likely spread: +1 (Belinda Bencic wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Li is projected to hit 4.1 aces to Bencic’s 1.8, while their double-fault totals are close, at 3.7 for Li and 3.6 for Bencic. The ace forecast favors Li despite the close serve profiles, with both players expected to make a similar number of double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 5.9 Most likely: 4 aces Per player: Belinda Bencic 1.8 + Ann Li 4.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.3 Most likely: 6 double faults Per player: Belinda Bencic 3.6 + Ann Li 3.7

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Belinda Bencic

Expected 1.8 aces

Ann Li

Expected 4.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Belinda Bencic

Expected 3.6 double faults

Ann Li

Expected 3.7 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

26.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Belinda Bencic's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (40.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Li’s serve is the specific route to an upset: if it creates enough free points to blunt Bencic’s stronger returning, the forecast could change.

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