Seoul Seoul, KOR Hard Wta 250 Quarterfinals

Lanlana Tararudee vs Maya Joint Prediction

Lanlana Tararudee

Rank: #61
48%
VS

Maya Joint

Rank: #68
52%
Expected Total Games: 21.0
Predicted Winner: Maya Joint

Why the Model Favors Maya Joint

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +4.5 Lanlana Tararudee
Surface fit +3.4 Maya Joint
Age +2.1 Maya Joint
Recent form +1.6 Lanlana Tararudee
Overall strength +1.6 Maya Joint

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 52% for Maya Joint. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Lanlana Tararudee

  • Current #61 2026-09-21
  • 3 mo ago #95 2026-06-22
  • 6 mo ago #106 2026-03-23
  • 9 mo ago #135 2025-12-22
  • 12 mo ago #164 2025-09-22

Maya Joint

  • Current #68 2026-09-21
  • 3 mo ago #53 2026-06-22
  • 6 mo ago #31 2026-03-23
  • 9 mo ago #32 2025-12-22
  • 12 mo ago #36 2025-09-22

Player Metrics

Lanlana Tararudee

Form Index: 43.3
ELO Rating: 1652.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1678.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 233.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.7
Clay: 14.4
Grass: 11.9
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 91.7

Maya Joint

Form Index: 46.1
ELO Rating: 1659.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1633.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 228.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 33.8
Clay: 22.0
Grass: 13.8
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 87.2

Recent Matches

Lanlana Tararudee
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Sohyun Park (2-0) hard Seoul 96 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Moyuka Uchijima (2-1) hard Seoul 137 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Linda Noskova (0-2) hard Us Open 120 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Elvina Kalieva (2-1) hard Us Open 120 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Maria Timofeeva (1-2) hard Monterrey 181 min

Maya Joint
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Dayeon Back (2-0) hard Seoul 64 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Xinxin Yao (2-1) hard Seoul 164 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Elina Svitolina (1-2) hard Us Open 120 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Liudmila Samsonova (2-1) hard Us Open 120 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Panna Udvardy (0-2) hard Monterrey 95 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Lanlana Tararudee
vs
0
Maya Joint
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Maya Joint is a narrow favorite, with a 52% chance of winning to Lanlana Tararudee’s 48%, and the match is projected to last 21.0 games. This Seoul quarterfinal looks finely balanced, with Tararudee’s stronger serve-and-return game keeping her close.

Match Analysis

Tararudee has the stronger serve-and-return profile, especially when returning. That could let her put pressure on Joint’s service games and is the main reason the forecast gives Joint only a slight advantage. Joint counters with a somewhat better hard-court fit and a small overall-strength edge. Both have won twice in Seoul: Tararudee beat Sohyun Park in straight sets, and Joint did the same against Dayeon Back, so neither has a clearly stronger recent run.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.0 Most likely outcome: 20 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Lanlana Tararudee - Maya Joint) -0.8 Most likely spread: -1 (Maya Joint wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Tararudee is projected for 2.8 aces and 4.6 double faults, while Joint is projected for 1.9 aces and 3.9 double faults. Tararudee’s slightly stronger serve profile supports the difference in aces, while the combined expectation of more than eight double faults points to some loose service points from both.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 4.7 Most likely: 3 aces Per player: Lanlana Tararudee 2.8 + Maya Joint 1.9
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 8.3 Most likely: 7 double faults Per player: Lanlana Tararudee 4.6 + Maya Joint 3.9

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Lanlana Tararudee

Expected 2.8 aces

Maya Joint

Expected 1.9 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Lanlana Tararudee

Expected 4.6 double faults

Maya Joint

Expected 3.9 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

23.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Lanlana Tararudee's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (31.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tararudee’s return is her best path to an upset: if she can turn that strength into sustained pressure on Joint’s serve, the narrow forecast could tip her way. Joint’s better hard-court fit is the counter.

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