Sara Bejlek vs Madison Keys: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Keys comes mainly from the serve and return game and overall strength. Keys carries a higher Elo at 1911 versus Bejlek's 1764 and sits inside the top 25 with a 23 ranking compared with Bejlek at 38. Those differences account for about 16.2 percentage points of the prediction in Keys favor when combined. Keys also posts a slightly higher mean serve index, 96.87 versus 95.16, but the gap is under the 5 point threshold so serve power alone is not decisive. Bejlek earns small advantages on age and recent workload in the model. She has a superior mean return index, 94.10 to Keys 87.29, a gap greater than 5 points that suggests she will press Keys on second serve and neutralize free points. Fatigue numbers show Bejlek has already spent 290 minutes on court at this event versus Keys at 205 minutes. Despite the heavier workload, Bejlek has ridden strong form into this match, winning her last three hard court matches here, including wins over Ekaterina Alexandrova and Barbora Krejcikova. Keys has won two of her last three, with straight set wins in Cincinnati versus Katerina Siniakova and a longer three set against Daria Snigur, and a loss in Montreal to Marta Kostyuk.