Philipp Köhn
Monaco
Model vs baseline
The baseline knows his position and his expected minutes, nothing else. We publish the comparison whichever side wins. CRPS is lower-is-better, skill is the percentage improvement.
| Stat | Per match | Model CRPS | Baseline CRPS | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saves | 3.62 | 1.4881 | 1.4924 | +0.3% ±14.7 |
Season by season
One entry per covered season. This is our accuracy over time, not his form.
| Season | Club | Starts | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Salzburg | 8 | saves only |
| 2025-26 | Monaco | 8 | saves only |
What we expected, and what happened
Our forecast total against his actual total, season by season, over the matches he started. Hover a bar for the exact numbers: expected totals sum the per-match forecasts, so they can be fractional.
Saves
On the nights we expected more, 2025-26
His started matches split by how much we expected of him, lowest first. If our forecast is tracking him rather than just averaging him, the observed bars rise with the expected ones.
Saves per match
How to read this page
Everything here measures our forecasts, not the player. A score of zero says how much closer our shot distributions landed than an informed benchmark that already knows the two strongest drivers of shooting volume: the player's position and how long he stays on the pitch. That benchmark is hard to beat consistently, and roughly a third of qualifying players do not. It is not a rating of how good he is, and a negative score means our model has work to do on him, not that he played badly.
Read it with the standard error beside it. The skill is a ratio of two small numbers, so it is much noisier for players who rarely shoot than for a striker with three or four attempts a match. Only started matches count, because a prediction made for a starting eleven is not a prediction about a substitute. Records are scored once the confirmed line-ups are announced ahead of kick-off.
A season is served from a single source. Seasons marked as a backtest were replayed by a model frozen before them, so the whole season is out of sample. Live seasons are reconciled after each matchday. See the full board, the Champions League title odds, and the methodology page.