Bodø/Glimt v Lille

The three cover every possible outcome.

Bodø/Glimt are the most likely winners, with a 52% chance of victory. A draw is 24%, while Lille are given 25%. The Norwegian side is therefore the expected result, although Lille's chance of winning is almost one in four and a draw remains possible.

The comparison is not one-sided. Bodø/Glimt's European pedigree carries more weight, and the European Elo ratings also place them above Lille as the stronger side across recent continental seasons: 1766 to 1654. Their scoring form is another positive in the model's assessment. Lille's domestic league standing pulls in the opposite direction, giving them a substantive counterweight to Bodø/Glimt's European credentials.

Neither side arrives on a strong European run: Bodø/Glimt have lost two of their last three, while Lille have lost all three. Both scored four across those matches, but Lille conceded ten and Bodø/Glimt nine. Those recent defensive records temper the case for either side, even as the model gives Bodø/Glimt the stronger scoring-form signal.

Conclusion

Lille's domestic standing is the clearest counterweight to Bodø/Glimt's European pedigree. If it proves more decisive in this matchup, the expected win could become a draw or a Lille victory.

This analysis is written by our models from the probabilities and factors published above. The numbers are the prediction, the prose only explains them.

Model context

Goal rates

1.79 - 1.17

European rating, Bodø/Glimt

1766

European rating, Lille

1654

First published

27 Oct 2026, 08:15

The model works by first estimating how often each side scores, then turning those scoring rates into the result probabilities above. The rates are shown so you can see which side is expected to create more. Read them as that comparison, not as a score prediction: the numbers sit lower than real goal counts.

The European rating is a dedicated ladder walked over Champions League and Europa League matches, qualifying included. It carries over between seasons rather than resetting, so the numbers are comparable across years. See the full season board →

Model: C_hybrid_2015 z_shrink=0.90 draw_coupling=0.03 train_seasons=2015-2026