Galatasaray v Stuttgart

The three cover every possible outcome.

Galatasaray are the most likely winners, with a 40% chance. A draw is 25%, while Stuttgart are given a 36% chance. The probabilities point to a narrow contest rather than a clear separation between the sides.

Stuttgart’s defensive solidity is the strongest distinction in the comparison. They have conceded only twice across their last three European matches, while Galatasaray have allowed nine. Stuttgart have also scored more in that span and arrive unbeaten in their last three European games. Galatasaray, by contrast, have lost two of their last three.

There is a counterweight in Galatasaray’s European pedigree. Their long-run continental rating is slightly higher, so Stuttgart’s recent form does not erase that broader measure of strength. Stuttgart also rate better for domestic league standing, another point in their favor. The balance is between Stuttgart’s stronger recent defensive and scoring form and Galatasaray’s modest advantage in European standing.

Conclusion

If Galatasaray can become more secure defensively after conceding nine in their last three European matches, their higher long-run European rating could have greater bearing on the result.

This analysis is written by our models from the probabilities and factors published above. The numbers are the prediction, the prose only explains them.

Model context

Goal rates

1.53 - 1.44

European rating, Galatasaray

1714

European rating, Stuttgart

1693

First published

27 Oct 2026, 08:15

The model works by first estimating how often each side scores, then turning those scoring rates into the result probabilities above. The rates are shown so you can see which side is expected to create more. Read them as that comparison, not as a score prediction: the numbers sit lower than real goal counts.

The European rating is a dedicated ladder walked over Champions League and Europa League matches, qualifying included. It carries over between seasons rather than resetting, so the numbers are comparable across years. See the full season board →

Model: C_hybrid_2015 z_shrink=0.90 draw_coupling=0.03 train_seasons=2015-2026