Fenerbahçe v Liverpool

The three cover every possible outcome.

Liverpool are the most likely winners at 63%, with a draw at 21% and a Fenerbahçe win at 16%.

European pedigree is the biggest separator: Liverpool’s Elo rating of 1941 is well above Fenerbahçe’s 1725, marking them as the stronger side over recent European seasons. The model’s domestic league-standing comparison also favors Liverpool, adding to the advantage.

Recent European form points the same way. Fenerbahçe have gone three matches without a win, scoring three goals and conceding nine, while Liverpool have won all three of their latest European outings, scoring 12 and conceding seven. Liverpool’s stronger scoring form and more solid defensive record support the model’s preference.

Conclusion

Fenerbahçe’s best route to changing that expectation is to contain Liverpool’s recent scoring threat. Their ability to avoid another high-concession European performance could make the difference.

This analysis is written by our models from the probabilities and factors published above. The numbers are the prediction, the prose only explains them.

Model context

Goal rates

0.93 - 2.05

European rating, Fenerbahçe

1725

European rating, Liverpool

1941

First published

28 Oct 2026, 08:15

The model works by first estimating how often each side scores, then turning those scoring rates into the result probabilities above. The rates are shown so you can see which side is expected to create more. Read them as that comparison, not as a score prediction: the numbers sit lower than real goal counts.

The European rating is a dedicated ladder walked over Champions League and Europa League matches, qualifying included. It carries over between seasons rather than resetting, so the numbers are comparable across years. See the full season board →

Model: C_hybrid_2015 z_shrink=0.90 draw_coupling=0.03 train_seasons=2015-2026