FC Barcelona
Euroleague ELO profile, season simulation & model record · 26 seasons covered
Also listed in our corpus as FC Barcelona Lassa, FC Barcelona Regal, Regal Barcelona, Regal FC Barcelona, AXA FC Barcelona, Winterthur FC Barcelona. Euroleague team names carry the title sponsor of the season, so this page keeps one stable address for the team itself.
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, playoffs and Final Four included. Euroleague ELO is season-relative in our engine: every team starts each season at 0, so the value reads as a gap to that season's league average and negative numbers are normal, not a red flag. Because of the re-seed, trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position that day.
Season simulation
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Reached: Play-in 21W–17L regular season
Full Euroleague simulation: every team's odds and the projected bracket →
How predictable is FC Barcelona?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 34 predicted games season backtest
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, FC Barcelona was 0.9% harder to call than the Euroleague average. A team can be easy to call while losing: a predictable season is not a good season. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | Euroleague avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 season backtest | 34 | 64.7% | 67.0% | 83.3% (league 75.8%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 FC Barcelona won 1 game as a clear underdog (we gave them 35% or less) and lost 1 as a clear favourite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 40 | #12 | -20 | +110 | -9 |
| 2024-25 | 39 | #4 | -15 | +125 | +111 |
| 2023-24 | 39 | #7 | +21 | +112 | +58 |
| 2022-23 | 39 | #4 | -31 | +184 | +120 |
| 2021-22 | 39 | #3 | +25 | +190 | +106 |
| 2020-21 | 41 | #2 | +17 | +196 | +139 |
| 2019-20 | 28 | #3 | +31 | +185 | +185 |
| 2018-19 as FC Barcelona Lassa | 35 | #5 | -22 | +109 | +59 |
| 2017-18 | 30 | #9 | +24 | +24 | -9 |
| 2016-17 | 30 | #13 | +25 | +48 | -72 |
| 2015-16 | 29 | #5 | -16 | +143 | +86 |
| 2014-15 | 28 | #5 | +8 | +228 | +166 |
| 2013-14 | 29 | #2 | +15 | +256 | +198 |
| 2012-13 as FC Barcelona Regal | 31 | #1 | +18 | +296 | +257 |
| 2011-12 | 21 | #1 | +41 | +254 | +242 |
| 2010-11 as Regal Barcelona | 20 | #4 | +19 | +178 | +129 |
| 2009-10 as Regal FC Barcelona | 22 | #1 | +42 | +298 | +298 |
| 2008-09 | 23 | #1 | +44 | +242 | +242 |
| 2007-08 as AXA FC Barcelona | 23 | #8 | -10 | +121 | +80 |
| 2006-07 as Winterthur FC Barcelona | 23 | #4 | +25 | +103 | +82 |
| 2005-06 | 25 | #8 | +20 | +110 | +56 |
| 2004-05 | 20 | #10 | +18 | +88 | +20 |
| 2003-04 | 20 | #4 | +14 | +174 | +102 |
| 2002-03 | 22 | #1 | +22 | +199 | +199 |
| 2001-02 | 20 | #6 | +35 | +142 | +124 |
| 2000-01 | 12 | #6 | +29 | +126 | +93 |
GP counts every Euroleague game in the corpus including the playoffs and the Final Four. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank on its last game day of that season, ranked against every team's last known rating on that date. Start, Peak and End are season-relative ELO values (each season re-seeds at 0). The "as" line appears when the team's registered name changed, which in the Euroleague usually means a new title sponsor rather than a new team.
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Punter | PG | 33 | 11.2 |
| Will Clyburn | SF | 23 | 8.0 |
| Tomas Satoransky | SG | 28 | 5.5 |
| Tornike Shengelia | C | 23 | 3.5 |
| Jan Vesely | PF | 24 | 3.3 |
Every FC Barcelona player with a predictability profile: started games only, 15-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points, rebounds and PIR against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | at AS Monaco | L FC Barcelona 28.8% | L 70-79 ✓ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vs Crvena Zvezda Belgrade | W FC Barcelona 61.8% | W 80-72 ✓ |
| Apr 17, 2026 | vs FC Bayern Munich | W FC Barcelona 58.1% | W 95-69 ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | at AS Monaco | L FC Barcelona 24.0% | L 86-93 ✓ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | vs Panathinaikos Athens | W FC Barcelona 57.5% | L 79-93 ✗ |
| Apr 02, 2026 | at Zalgiris Kaunas | L FC Barcelona 30.0% | L 71-83 ✓ |
| Mar 27, 2026 | vs Crvena Zvezda Belgrade | W FC Barcelona 55.7% | W 92-88 ✓ |
| Mar 24, 2026 | vs Anadolu Efes Istanbul | W FC Barcelona 75.1% | W 78-71 ✓ |
| Mar 19, 2026 | at Valencia Basket | L FC Barcelona 26.9% | W 66-62 ✗ |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vs Hapoel Tel Aviv | W FC Barcelona 62.7% | L 75-80 ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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