Fenerbahce Istanbul
Euroleague ELO profile, season simulation & model record · 25 seasons covered
Also listed in our corpus as Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul, Fenerbahce Dogus Istanbul, Fenerbahce Ulker Istanbul, Fenerbahce Ulker, Ulker. Euroleague team names carry the title sponsor of the season, so this page keeps one stable address for the team itself.
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, playoffs and Final Four included. Euroleague ELO is season-relative in our engine: every team starts each season at 0, so the value reads as a gap to that season's league average and negative numbers are normal, not a red flag. Because of the re-seed, trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position that day.
Season simulation
2026-27 season simulation
Title odds: 6.1% 21.3 projected wins · currently 0W-0L · as of 2026-09-11
Probabilities from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining schedule (single table, play-in, best-of-five quarter-finals and the neutral-venue Final Four), refreshed daily in season.
Full Euroleague simulation: every team's odds and the projected bracket →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Reached: Final Four 24W-14L regular season
Full Euroleague simulation: every team's odds and the projected bracket →
How predictable is Fenerbahce Istanbul?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 37 predicted games season backtest
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, Fenerbahce Istanbul was 0.9% harder to call than the Euroleague average. A team can be easy to call while losing: a predictable season is not a good season. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | Euroleague avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 season backtest | 37 | 67.6% | 67.0% | 84.6% (league 75.8%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 Fenerbahce Istanbul won 2 games as a clear underdog (we gave them 35% or less) and lost 0 as a clear favourite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 as Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul | 43 | #4 | +22 | +181 | +65 |
| 2024-25 | 39 | #1 | +18 | +192 | +192 |
| 2023-24 | 41 | #5 | +10 | +122 | +78 |
| 2022-23 | 39 | #7 | +34 | +145 | +20 |
| 2021-22 | 31 | #15 | +12 | +110 | -44 |
| 2020-21 | 37 | #10 | +19 | +126 | -4 |
| 2019-20 | 28 | #7 | -12 | +46 | +16 |
| 2018-19 | 36 | #4 | +23 | +235 | +163 |
| 2017-18 as Fenerbahce Dogus Istanbul | 36 | #2 | -5 | +190 | +170 |
| 2016-17 as Fenerbahce Ulker | 35 | #1 | +5 | +189 | +189 |
| 2015-16 | 29 | #2 | +15 | +206 | +182 |
| 2014-15 as Fenerbahce Ulker Istanbul | 29 | #3 | +10 | +229 | +178 |
| 2013-14 | 24 | #10 | +38 | +119 | +23 |
| 2012-13 | 24 | #23 | +18 | +45 | -156 |
| 2011-12 as Fenerbahce Ulker | 16 | #14 | -18 | +51 | -8 |
| 2010-11 as Fenerbahce Ulker Istanbul | 16 | #8 | +21 | +117 | +46 |
| 2009-10 as Fenerbahce Ulker | 10 | #22 | -42 | -6 | -103 |
| 2008-09 | 16 | #15 | -17 | +34 | -50 |
| 2007-08 | 22 | #12 | -29 | +21 | -20 |
| 2006-07 | 14 | #17 | -16 | +2 | -32 |
| 2005-06 as Ulker | 20 | #19 | -37 | -24 | -102 |
| 2004-05 | 22 | #12 | +45 | +69 | -4 |
| 2003-04 | 20 | #18 | +14 | +63 | -44 |
| 2002-03 | 20 | #7 | -18 | +92 | +57 |
| 2001-02 | 20 | #20 | +27 | +69 | -25 |
GP counts every Euroleague game in the corpus including the playoffs and the Final Four. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank on its last game day of that season, ranked against every team's last known rating on that date. Start, Peak and End are season-relative ELO values (each season re-seeds at 0). The "as" line appears when the team's registered name changed, which in the Euroleague usually means a new title sponsor rather than a new team.
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Talen Horton Tucker | Guard | 29 | 5.6 |
| Tarik Biberovic | Forward | 35 | 4.1 |
| Khem Birch | Center | 35 | 0.3 |
| Nicolo Melli | Forward | 26 | -0.3 |
| Devon Hall | Guard | 28 | -4.0 |
Every Fenerbahce Istanbul player with a predictability profile: started games only, 15-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points, rebounds and PIR against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | at Olympiacos Piraeus | L Fenerbahce Istanbul 27.9% | L 61-79 ✓ |
| May 08, 2026 | at Zalgiris Kaunas | L Fenerbahce Istanbul 33.0% | W 94-90 ✗ |
| May 06, 2026 | at Zalgiris Kaunas | L Fenerbahce Istanbul 33.3% | L 78-81 ✓ |
| Apr 30, 2026 | vs Zalgiris Kaunas | W Fenerbahce Istanbul 57.7% | W 86-74 ✓ |
| Apr 28, 2026 | vs Zalgiris Kaunas | W Fenerbahce Istanbul 53.1% | W 89-78 ✓ |
| Apr 16, 2026 | at ASVEL Villeurbanne | W Fenerbahce Istanbul 53.9% | W 81-76 ✓ |
| Apr 09, 2026 | vs Real Madrid | W Fenerbahce Istanbul 51.2% | L 69-74 ✗ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | at Hapoel Tel Aviv | L Fenerbahce Istanbul 36.7% | L 80-95 ✓ |
| Apr 01, 2026 | at FC Bayern Munich | L Fenerbahce Istanbul 46.7% | L 76-85 ✓ |
| Mar 27, 2026 | vs Zalgiris Kaunas | W Fenerbahce Istanbul 61.8% | L 82-92 ✗ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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