Olympiacos Piraeus vs Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · October 23, 2026
Olympiacos Piraeus
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul
Why the Model Favors Olympiacos Piraeus
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 70% for Olympiacos Piraeus. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMEOlympiacos Piraeus
AWAYFenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
Olympiacos Piraeus is favored at home, with a 70% chance of beating Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul. Sasha Vezenkov is a focal point for the hosts, while Talen Horton-Tucker leads Fenerbahce’s projected scoring.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
A projected 182-point total suggests an offense-led game rather than a low-scoring grind. Olympiacos is forecast to win by six, a meaningful but not decisive margin between teams with identical 5-1 records.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 182.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (Olympiacos Piraeus − Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul) · expected +6.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Both teams’ ELO ratings are rising over the last five games, up 51 points for Olympiacos and 29 for Fenerbahce.
Olympiacos Piraeus
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsGame Analysis
Home court is the strongest separator in the forecast, with Olympiacos also favored by the scoring and shooting comparison. Its recent wins included two games above 100 points, and Vezenkov is projected for 16.4 points and a 17.7 PIR, the strongest all-round profile among the listed starters.
Fenerbahce’s clearest counter is Horton-Tucker, projected for 13.5 points and 3.3 assists as its leading listed scorer and creator. The visitors have won two of their last three and lost one, while Olympiacos has won all three. Rebounding and paint presence, along with ballhandling and foul control, provide smaller supporting advantages for the hosts.
Final Prediction
Fenerbahce can change the outlook by disrupting Olympiacos’ shooting, particularly if it limits Vezenkov’s scoring opportunities.
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