Paris Basketball
Euroleague ELO profile, season simulation & model record · 2 seasons covered
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, playoffs and Final Four included. Euroleague ELO is season-relative in our engine: every team starts each season at 0, so the value reads as a gap to that season's league average and negative numbers are normal, not a red flag. Because of the re-seed, trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position that day.
Season simulation
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Missed the playoffs 15W–23L regular season
Full Euroleague simulation: every team's odds and the projected bracket →
How predictable is Paris Basketball?
Chaos team 2025-26 · 32 predicted games season backtest
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, Paris Basketball was 13.7% harder to call than the Euroleague average. A team can be easy to call while losing: a predictable season is not a good season. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | Euroleague avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 season backtest | 32 | 50.0% | 67.0% | 71.4% (league 75.8%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 Paris Basketball won 3 games as a clear underdog (we gave them 35% or less) and lost 1 as a clear favourite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 38 | #12 | -22 | +67 | -12 |
| 2024-25 | 38 | #9 | -18 | +170 | +1 |
GP counts every Euroleague game in the corpus including the playoffs and the Final Four. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank on its last game day of that season, ranked against every team's last known rating on that date. Start, Peak and End are season-relative ELO values (each season re-seeds at 0). The "as" line appears when the team's registered name changed, which in the Euroleague usually means a new title sponsor rather than a new team.
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nadir Hifi | PG | 15 | 5.3 |
| Justin Robinson | PG | 17 | 4.9 |
| Jared Rhoden | SG | 22 | 1.6 |
| Mouhamed Faye | C | 17 | -2.8 |
Every Paris Basketball player with a predictability profile: started games only, 15-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points, rebounds and PIR against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | at Zalgiris Kaunas | L Paris Basketball 28.2% | L 79-85 ✓ |
| Apr 09, 2026 | vs Maccabi Tel Aviv | W Paris Basketball 56.2% | W 113-80 ✓ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | at Crvena Zvezda Belgrade | L Paris Basketball 34.6% | L 81-94 ✓ |
| Apr 02, 2026 | vs Olimpia Milano | W Paris Basketball 59.5% | W 103-93 ✓ |
| Mar 31, 2026 | at Virtus Bologna | L Paris Basketball 38.6% | W 103-82 ✗ |
| Mar 19, 2026 | vs Partizan Belgrade | W Paris Basketball 64.8% | L 81-90 ✗ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Hapoel Tel Aviv | L Paris Basketball 28.4% | L 82-93 ✓ |
| Mar 12, 2026 | vs ASVEL Villeurbanne | W Paris Basketball 73.7% | W 90-81 ✓ |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vs Olympiacos Piraeus | W Paris Basketball 54.5% | L 87-104 ✗ |
| Mar 06, 2026 | at Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz | L Paris Basketball 34.9% | W 97-81 ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Euroleague team ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/euroleague-teams/paris-basketball">Euroleague team ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/euroleague-teams/paris-basketball">Euroleague team ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>