Real Madrid
Euroleague ELO profile, season simulation & model record · 24 seasons covered
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, playoffs and Final Four included. Euroleague ELO is season-relative in our engine: every team starts each season at 0, so the value reads as a gap to that season's league average and negative numbers are normal, not a red flag. Because of the re-seed, trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position that day.
Season simulation
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Reached: Final 24W–14L regular season
Full Euroleague simulation: every team's odds and the projected bracket →
How predictable is Real Madrid?
On script 2025-26 · 38 predicted games season backtest
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, Real Madrid was 17.4% easier to call than the Euroleague average. A team can be easy to call while losing: a predictable season is not a good season. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | Euroleague avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 season backtest | 38 | 79.0% | 67.0% | 94.1% (league 75.8%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 Real Madrid won 1 game as a clear underdog (we gave them 35% or less) and lost 0 as a clear favourite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 44 | #2 | -14 | +178 | +162 |
| 2024-25 | 40 | #7 | -16 | +99 | +61 |
| 2023-24 | 39 | #2 | +14 | +235 | +162 |
| 2022-23 | 41 | #1 | +18 | +189 | +189 |
| 2021-22 | 38 | #2 | +19 | +226 | +110 |
| 2020-21 | 39 | #5 | -19 | +140 | +82 |
| 2019-20 | 28 | #2 | +12 | +211 | +211 |
| 2018-19 | 35 | #2 | +20 | +186 | +186 |
| 2017-18 | 36 | #1 | +35 | +184 | +184 |
| 2016-17 | 36 | #3 | +21 | +216 | +149 |
| 2015-16 | 27 | #11 | -19 | +82 | +11 |
| 2014-15 | 30 | #2 | +16 | +250 | +250 |
| 2013-14 | 31 | #1 | +40 | +258 | +219 |
| 2012-13 | 29 | #2 | +15 | +240 | +207 |
| 2011-12 | 16 | #4 | +42 | +140 | +132 |
| 2010-11 | 23 | #6 | -20 | +141 | +51 |
| 2009-10 | 20 | #4 | -10 | +144 | +101 |
| 2008-09 | 20 | #8 | +22 | +103 | +68 |
| 2007-08 | 20 | #5 | +29 | +150 | +108 |
| 2005-06 | 23 | #10 | +18 | +95 | +23 |
| 2004-05 | 20 | #14 | -9 | +69 | -11 |
| 2002-03 | 14 | #19 | +21 | +30 | -47 |
| 2001-02 | 20 | #9 | +31 | +115 | +70 |
| 2000-01 | 15 | #5 | +8 | +129 | +104 |
GP counts every Euroleague game in the corpus including the playoffs and the Final Four. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank on its last game day of that season, ranked against every team's last known rating on that date. Start, Peak and End are season-relative ELO values (each season re-seeds at 0). The "as" line appears when the team's registered name changed, which in the Euroleague usually means a new title sponsor rather than a new team.
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Hezonja | PF | 32 | 8.9 |
| Facundo Campazzo | PG | 37 | 7.9 |
| Walter Tavares | C | 33 | 6.1 |
| Alberto Abalde | SF | 36 | -2.0 |
| Chuma Okeke | C | 30 | -3.2 |
Every Real Madrid player with a predictability profile: started games only, 15-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points, rebounds and PIR against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | at Olympiacos Piraeus | L Real Madrid 38.1% | L 85-92 ✓ |
| May 22, 2026 | at Valencia Basket | L Real Madrid 47.0% | W 105-90 ✗ |
| May 07, 2026 | at Hapoel Tel Aviv | L Real Madrid 44.6% | W 87-81 ✗ |
| May 05, 2026 | at Hapoel Tel Aviv | L Real Madrid 47.2% | L 69-76 ✓ |
| May 01, 2026 | vs Hapoel Tel Aviv | W Real Madrid 71.2% | W 102-75 ✓ |
| Apr 29, 2026 | vs Hapoel Tel Aviv | W Real Madrid 70.1% | W 86-82 ✓ |
| Apr 16, 2026 | vs Crvena Zvezda Belgrade | W Real Madrid 69.3% | W 103-82 ✓ |
| Apr 09, 2026 | at Fenerbahce Istanbul | L Real Madrid 48.8% | W 74-69 ✗ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | at Olympiacos Piraeus | L Real Madrid 29.7% | L 88-102 ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz | W Real Madrid 56.8% | L 96-98 ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/euroleague-teams/real-madrid">Euroleague team ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/euroleague-teams/real-madrid">Euroleague team ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>