Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · October 22, 2026
Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv
Real Madrid
Why the Model Favors Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 62% for Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMEMaccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv
AWAYReal Madrid
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv is favored at home, with a 62% win probability. Yam Madar is projected to help organize the hosts’ offense, while Theo Maledon is Real Madrid’s leading projected scorer.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
The projected total is 179 points, with Maccabi favored by 2. That points to a high-scoring, close game, with little separating the teams in the expected margin.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 178.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv − Real Madrid) · expected +2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Both ratings are rising: Maccabi is up 24 ELO points over its last five games, while Real Madrid is up 57.
Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
Real Madrid
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsGame Analysis
Home court is the clearest reason the projection leans Maccabi, though Madrid has the stronger rating and advantages in rebounding and paint presence. Tavares is projected for 9.9 points and 6.7 rebounds, giving Madrid a substantial interior presence. Maledon is projected for 15.4 points and 5.0 assists, leading the visitors in scoring and playmaking.
Madrid also rates better in ballhandling, steals and fouls, so Maccabi’s perimeter control could matter. Madar is projected for 13.1 points and 4.2 assists, and his creation can help the hosts keep pace. Madrid has won each of its three listed recent games, while Maccabi has split its last three.
Final Prediction
If Tavares controls the glass and paint, Madrid can overcome the home-court lean. Keeping him from dictating inside could help Maccabi’s narrow projected margin hold.
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