Zalgiris Kaunas
Euroleague ELO profile, season simulation & model record · 26 seasons covered
Also listed in our corpus as Zalgiris. Euroleague team names carry the title sponsor of the season, so this page keeps one stable address for the team itself.
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, playoffs and Final Four included. Euroleague ELO is season-relative in our engine: every team starts each season at 0, so the value reads as a gap to that season's league average and negative numbers are normal, not a red flag. Because of the re-seed, trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position that day.
Season simulation
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Reached: Playoffs 23W–15L regular season
Full Euroleague simulation: every team's odds and the projected bracket →
How predictable is Zalgiris Kaunas?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 36 predicted games season backtest
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, Zalgiris Kaunas was 4.8% harder to call than the Euroleague average. A team can be easy to call while losing: a predictable season is not a good season. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | Euroleague avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 season backtest | 36 | 72.2% | 67.0% | 66.7% (league 75.8%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 Zalgiris Kaunas won 1 game as a clear underdog (we gave them 35% or less) and lost 4 as a clear favourite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 42 | #6 | +23 | +101 | +44 |
| 2024-25 | 34 | #15 | +15 | +58 | -89 |
| 2023-24 | 34 | #9 | +18 | +48 | -9 |
| 2022-23 | 37 | #12 | -5 | +69 | -10 |
| 2021-22 | 32 | #17 | -18 | -18 | -149 |
| 2020-21 | 34 | #12 | +9 | +80 | -39 |
| 2019-20 | 28 | #6 | -34 | +57 | +46 |
| 2018-19 | 34 | #9 | -29 | +47 | +8 |
| 2017-18 | 36 | #4 | +8 | +82 | +80 |
| 2016-17 | 30 | #10 | -16 | -2 | -10 |
| 2015-16 | 24 | #23 | +21 | +21 | -143 |
| 2014-15 | 24 | #15 | -16 | +43 | -52 |
| 2013-14 | 24 | #20 | -40 | -5 | -107 |
| 2012-13 | 24 | #8 | +24 | +121 | +49 |
| 2011-12 | 16 | #19 | -34 | -28 | -98 |
| 2010-11 | 16 | #21 | +18 | +43 | -83 |
| 2009-10 | 16 | #21 | +22 | +22 | -90 |
| 2008-09 as Zalgiris | 10 | #18 | -24 | -24 | -97 |
| 2007-08 | 20 | #13 | -14 | +56 | -27 |
| 2006-07 | 14 | #23 | -19 | +1 | -149 |
| 2005-06 | 20 | #16 | +18 | +66 | -66 |
| 2004-05 | 20 | #17 | -44 | +35 | -60 |
| 2003-04 | 20 | #11 | +14 | +38 | -6 |
| 2002-03 | 14 | #18 | -15 | -15 | -44 |
| 2001-02 | 14 | #22 | -26 | +8 | -38 |
| 2000-01 | 12 | #12 | -14 | +55 | +30 |
GP counts every Euroleague game in the corpus including the playoffs and the Final Four. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank on its last game day of that season, ranked against every team's last known rating on that date. Start, Peak and End are season-relative ELO values (each season re-seeds at 0). The "as" line appears when the team's registered name changed, which in the Euroleague usually means a new title sponsor rather than a new team.
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arnas Butkevicius | PF | 22 | 9.1 |
| Azuolas Tubelis | SF | 35 | 7.1 |
| Moses Wright | C | 28 | 7.1 |
| Nigel Williams-Goss | PG | 23 | 4.7 |
| Sylvain Francisco | SG | 29 | 3.8 |
Every Zalgiris Kaunas player with a predictability profile: started games only, 15-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points, rebounds and PIR against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 08, 2026 | vs Fenerbahce Istanbul | W Zalgiris Kaunas 67.0% | L 90-94 ✗ |
| May 06, 2026 | vs Fenerbahce Istanbul | W Zalgiris Kaunas 66.7% | W 81-78 ✓ |
| Apr 30, 2026 | at Fenerbahce Istanbul | L Zalgiris Kaunas 42.3% | L 74-86 ✓ |
| Apr 28, 2026 | at Fenerbahce Istanbul | L Zalgiris Kaunas 46.9% | L 78-89 ✓ |
| Apr 17, 2026 | vs Paris Basketball | W Zalgiris Kaunas 71.8% | W 85-79 ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | at Partizan Belgrade | W Zalgiris Kaunas 53.2% | W 83-74 ✓ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | vs Dubai Basketball | W Zalgiris Kaunas 68.3% | L 65-77 ✗ |
| Apr 02, 2026 | vs FC Barcelona | W Zalgiris Kaunas 70.0% | W 83-71 ✓ |
| Mar 27, 2026 | at Fenerbahce Istanbul | L Zalgiris Kaunas 38.2% | W 92-82 ✗ |
| Mar 24, 2026 | vs FC Bayern Munich | W Zalgiris Kaunas 71.1% | W 78-71 ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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