Zalgiris Kaunas vs LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · October 23, 2026

Zalgiris Kaunas

Home
58.5%
VS

LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne

Away
41.5%
Regular Season EuroLeague 2026-27

Why the Model Favors Zalgiris Kaunas

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home court +14.3 Zalgiris Kaunas
Scoring & shooting +6.5 LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.8 Zalgiris Kaunas
Ballhandling, steals & fouls +1.6 LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne
Rebounding & paint presence +0.7 Zalgiris Kaunas

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 58% for Zalgiris Kaunas. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

Per-player expected lines and full probability distributions, including PIR, EuroLeague's signature box-score metric. Click a player to view their full distributions.

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HOMEZalgiris Kaunas

PTS17.3 REB2.1 AST3.6 3PM3.0 PIR15.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS12.6 REB5.4 AST2.1 3PM0.4 PIR14.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS6.4 REB3.8 AST1.2 3PM1.0 PIR8.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS4.8 REB3.3 AST0.7 3PM0.1 PIR7.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS12.3 REB7.4 AST2.6 3PM0.2 PIR18.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)

AWAYLDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne

PTS10.6 REB2.4 AST2.9 3PM1.4 PIR10.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS10.2 REB2.2 AST3.1 3PM2.2 PIR10.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS8.1 REB2.3 AST2.1 3PM1.5 PIR8.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS11.8 REB4.6 AST3.1 3PM1.0 PIR13.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS6.4 REB5.4 AST0.9 3PM0.0 PIR9.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)

Starting Five Matchup

1
Carsen Edwards Guard
PTS
17.3
PIR
15.1
REB
2.1
VS
Hugo Besson Guard
PTS
10.6
PIR
10.9
REB
2.4
2
Azuolas Tubelis Forward
PTS
12.6
PIR
14.2
REB
5.4
VS
Tremont Waters Guard
PTS
10.2
PIR
10.0
REB
2.2
3
Dustin Sleva Forward
PTS
6.4
PIR
8.5
REB
3.8
VS
Both Gach Forward
PTS
8.1
PIR
8.6
REB
2.3
4
Arnas Butkevicius Forward
PTS
4.8
PIR
7.3
REB
3.3
VS
Jae Crowder Forward
PTS
11.8
PIR
13.7
REB
4.6
5
Jonas Valanciunas Center
PTS
12.3
PIR
18.0
REB
7.4
VS
Joel Bolomboy Center
PTS
6.4
PIR
9.6
REB
5.4
1-5 = projected starter slot, the order the model expects the five to be named · PTS = Projected Points · PIR = Performance Index Rating (all-round impact) · REB = Projected Rebounds

Key Prediction Insights

Zalgiris Kaunas is favored to beat LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne, with a 59% win probability. The home side’s projected advantage is modest, and both teams enter at 2-4.

Total Points & Spread Analysis

The projected total is 169 points, with Zalgiris forecast to win by 3. That points to a close game with scoring around the high 160s, rather than a comfortable margin.

Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).

Total Points · expected 169.1

Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)

Spread (Zalgiris Kaunas − LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne) · expected +3.2

Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)

ELO Rating Trends

Both ratings are falling over the last five games, down 48 points for Zalgiris and 47 for ASVEL.

Zalgiris Kaunas

-16 -13 over last 5 games

Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).

LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne

-72 -50 over last 5 games

Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).

EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings

See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.

View Full ELO Ratings

Game Analysis

Home court is the clearest separation in the forecast, while team-strength ratings also tilt slightly toward Zalgiris. ASVEL’s advantage in scoring and shooting, along with ballhandling, steals and fouls, gives the visitors ways to keep pace and helps explain the narrow projected margin.

Zalgiris has an interior anchor in Jonas Valanciunas, projected for 12 points and 7 rebounds, while Carsen Edwards is projected for 17 points and three threes. ASVEL can counter with Jae Crowder, projected for 12 points, and Tremont Waters, projected for 10 points and two threes. Both teams are 2-4 and have lost their last two listed games after opening the recent sequence with a win.

Final Prediction

If ASVEL turns its scoring and shooting advantage into efficient perimeter scoring, it can offset Zalgiris’ home-court lift. Otherwise, the hosts’ modest edge should hold.

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