Besiktas Istanbul vs Olympiacos Piraeus Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · October 28, 2026
Besiktas Istanbul
Olympiacos Piraeus
Why the Model Favors Besiktas Istanbul
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 52% for Besiktas Istanbul. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMEBesiktas Istanbul
AWAYOlympiacos Piraeus
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
Besiktas Istanbul gets a narrow home-court lean, with a 52% chance to win. Olympiacos Piraeus has the stronger season record at 5-2, but the forecast gives the hosts just enough advantage to edge a close game.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
The expected total rounds to 183 points, pointing to a relatively high-scoring game. The expected margin rounds to zero, so the forecast is essentially a one-possession contest, with Besiktas narrowly ahead.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 182.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (Besiktas Istanbul − Olympiacos Piraeus) · expected +0.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Besiktas has been essentially flat, up one ELO point across five games, while Olympiacos is rising sharply, up 42.
Besiktas Istanbul
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
Olympiacos Piraeus
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Besiktas Istanbul
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anadolu Efes Istanbul | 80 | 89 | -9 |
Olympiacos Piraeus
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul | 61 | 64 | -3 |
Game Analysis
Home court is the clearest reason for Besiktas’ slim advantage. Olympiacos counters with stronger team ratings and advantages in rebounding, paint presence and shooting, so the hosts will need to make their home floor count against a more highly rated opponent.
The recent results show Olympiacos winning two of its last three, while Besiktas has one win in that span. Sasha Vezenkov is projected for 18 points and 6 rebounds, giving Olympiacos a major scoring option. For Besiktas, Ante Zizic is projected for 10 points and 6 rebounds and will be important inside.
Final Prediction
The result could turn on whether Zizic can help Besiktas hold its ground on the glass and in the paint against Olympiacos’ rebounding advantage.
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