Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade vs Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · October 27, 2026
Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade
Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv
Why the Model Favors Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 65% for Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMECrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade
AWAYMaccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade is favoured to win, with a 65% chance of victory. The home side’s stronger rating and court advantage give it the clearest path, though Maccabi’s scoring could keep the game close.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
The projected total is 164 points, a sign of a moderately high-scoring game. Crvena Zvezda is favoured by 6 points, pointing to a competitive matchup with the home team holding a modest cushion.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 164.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade − Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv) · expected +5.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Both ratings are rising over the last five games, with Crvena Zvezda up 53 points and Maccabi up 10.
Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade | 82 | 85 | -3 |
Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 99 | 113 | -14 |
Game Analysis
Home court is the strongest influence in Crvena Zvezda’s favour, backed by its higher team-strength rating. The Belgrade side has won two of its last three, while Maccabi has won one of its last three. Those results fit the broader rating gap, but neither team arrives on a long winning run.
Maccabi’s scoring and shooting are the main counterweight, giving the visitors a route to challenge the home advantage. Semi Ojeleye is projected for 11.9 points and a 13.8 PIR, while Yam Madar is projected for 11.5 points and a 13.6 PIR. Their projected all-round impact makes them central to their teams’ chances.
Final Prediction
The result could turn if Maccabi’s shooting advantage translates into enough scoring to overcome Crvena Zvezda’s home-court benefit. If not, the home side’s stronger team rating should be difficult to offset.
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