Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv vs Virtus Bologna Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · October 21, 2026
Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv
Virtus Bologna
Why the Model Favors Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 75% for Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMEHapoel IBI Tel Aviv
AWAYVirtus Bologna
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv is favored at home, with a 75% win probability. The forecast points to an advantage built chiefly on its home setting and the possession-related matchup, rather than a large gap in team rating.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
The expected total is 181 points, a high-scoring outlook for the matchup. Hapoel is projected to win by 7, making the hosts clear favorites while leaving room for a competitive game if Virtus keeps pace offensively.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 180.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv − Virtus Bologna) · expected +7.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Both teams’ ratings are rising sharply over the last five games, up 59 points for Hapoel and 58 for Virtus.
Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
Virtus Bologna
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsGame Analysis
Home court is the clearest separator in the projection, with Hapoel also receiving support from the ballhandling, steals and fouls matchup. In practical terms, the forecast expects the hosts to manage possessions more cleanly and gain chances through pressure while avoiding costly fouls. Their season ratings are close enough that these game-level advantages matter more than a broad strength gap.
Elijah Bryant is projected for 17 points and a 23.8 PIR, giving Hapoel its strongest all-around scoring profile. Vasilije Micic is projected for 14 points and 4 assists as another creator. Virtus can answer with Marcus Carr, projected for 14 points and 5 assists, and Derrick Alston Jr., projected for 13 points and 2 threes. Both teams are 4-2, but Hapoel has two wins in its last three, while Virtus has won three straight.
Final Prediction
Virtus can swing the game by protecting the ball and forcing turnovers of its own. If Carr controls the possession battle, Hapoel’s main matchup advantage shrinks.
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