LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne vs Besiktas Istanbul Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · November 13, 2026
LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne
Besiktas Istanbul
Why the Model Favors LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 62% for LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMELDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne
AWAYBesiktas Istanbul
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne is favored at home, with a 62% win probability. Jae Crowder gives ASVEL a projected two-way anchor, while Jaylen Nowell is Besiktas’s leading projected scorer.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
The expected total of 175 points points to a fairly high-scoring game. ASVEL’s projected four-point margin suggests a competitive contest, with the home side holding a narrow advantage.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 175.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne − Besiktas Istanbul) · expected +4.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Both ELO ratings are falling over the last five games: ASVEL is down 11 points, while Besiktas has dropped 56.
LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
Besiktas Istanbul
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zalgiris Kaunas | 85 | 105 | -20 | |
| Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade | 82 | 75 | +7 | |
| Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz | 94 | 79 | +15 | |
| FC Bayern Munich | 95 | 99 | -4 |
Besiktas Istanbul
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anadolu Efes Istanbul | 80 | 89 | -9 | |
| Olympiacos Piraeus | 73 | 81 | -8 | |
| Virtus Bologna | 103 | 101 | +2 | |
| Zalgiris Kaunas | 67 | 83 | -16 |
Game Analysis
Home court is the main reason ASVEL is favored, while the scoring and shooting comparison gives Besiktas a small counterweight. ASVEL has won two of its last three, while Besiktas has lost two of its last three, so neither team arrives with a clear run of momentum.
ASVEL’s projected Crowder, with 13 points and 4 rebounds, and Tyty Washington Jr, with 11 points and 4 assists, offer scoring and creation. Nowell is projected for 13 points and 3 assists for Besiktas, while Eugene Omoruyi is projected for 11 points and 3 assists. Their perimeter contributions could help the visitors counter ASVEL’s home advantage.
Final Prediction
If Besiktas’s projected scoring translates into effective shooting, it could overcome the home-court advantage that most separates these teams.
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