LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne vs Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · October 28, 2026

LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne

Home
53.9%
VS

Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade

Away
46.1%
Regular Season EuroLeague 2026-27

Why the Model Favors LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home court +14.3 LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +8.7 Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade
Ballhandling, steals & fouls +2.9 Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade
Scoring & shooting +2.2 LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 54% for LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

Per-player expected lines and full probability distributions, including PIR, EuroLeague's signature box-score metric. Click a player to view their full distributions.

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HOMELDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne

PTS10.3 REB3.1 AST2.8 3PM1.2 PIR10.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS10.4 REB2.5 AST3.1 3PM1.8 PIR10.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS8.5 REB2.7 AST2.2 3PM1.2 PIR8.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS11.1 REB4.8 AST2.9 3PM1.0 PIR13.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS7.3 REB5.3 AST0.9 3PM0.0 PIR8.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)

AWAYPartizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade

PTS16.3 REB2.8 AST5.1 3PM1.3 PIR16.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS6.6 REB2.9 AST3.8 3PM1.1 PIR8.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS8.1 REB3.2 AST1.8 3PM1.3 PIR8.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS6.9 REB4.1 AST1.0 3PM0.2 PIR8.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS10.1 REB5.0 AST0.8 3PM0.2 PIR11.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)

Starting Five Matchup

1
Hugo Besson Guard
PTS
10.3
PIR
10.9
REB
3.1
VS
Carlik Jones Guard
PTS
16.3
PIR
16.4
REB
2.8
2
Tremont Waters Guard
PTS
10.4
PIR
10.5
REB
2.5
VS
Alessandro Pajola Guard
PTS
6.6
PIR
8.9
REB
2.9
3
Both Gach Forward
PTS
8.5
PIR
8.2
REB
2.7
VS
Ethan Thompson Forward
PTS
8.1
PIR
8.4
REB
3.2
4
Jae Crowder Forward
PTS
11.1
PIR
13.2
REB
4.8
VS
Nikola Tanaskovic Center
PTS
6.9
PIR
8.9
REB
4.1
5
Joel Bolomboy Center
PTS
7.3
PIR
8.6
REB
5.3
VS
Kevarrius Hayes Center
PTS
10.1
PIR
11.1
REB
5.0
1-5 = projected starter slot, the order the model expects the five to be named · PTS = Projected Points · PIR = Performance Index Rating (all-round impact) · REB = Projected Rebounds

Key Prediction Insights

LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne has a 54% chance to win. Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade remains close behind despite ASVEL’s home-court advantage.

Total Points & Spread Analysis

The projection is 167 combined points, pointing to a moderately high-scoring game. The expected margin rounds to Partizan by 0 points, making this effectively even.

Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).

Total Points · expected 166.8

Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)

Spread (LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne − Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade) · expected -0.3

Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)

ELO Rating Trends

ASVEL’s ELO has fallen 36 points over its last five games, while Partizan’s has dropped 59, so both teams have falling momentum.

LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne

-53 -31 over last 5 games

Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).

Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade

-16 -55 over last 5 games

Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).

EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings

See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.

View Full ELO Ratings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne

0-1 in last 1
L
OpponentPFPADiff
Zalgiris Kaunas 85 105 -20

Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade

1-0 in last 1
W
OpponentPFPADiff
Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade 85 82 +3

Game Analysis

Home court is the strongest support for ASVEL, but Partizan’s better team-strength rating and advantage in ballhandling, steals and foul control give the visitors ways to disrupt the home offense. ASVEL’s slight scoring and shooting advantage could help offset that pressure.

ASVEL has lost its last three games, while Partizan’s recent sequence includes a win after two defeats. Carlik Jones is projected for 16 points and 5 assists, making his creation important against an ASVEL team that needs to protect the ball. Jae Crowder is projected for 11 points and 5 rebounds, giving ASVEL a reliable scoring and rebounding presence.

Final Prediction

If ASVEL’s guards limit turnovers against Partizan’s ball pressure, the home-court advantage could prove decisive in a game with almost no projected margin.

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