Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade vs Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · November 6, 2026

Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade

Home
66.4%
VS

Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv

Away
33.6%
Regular Season EuroLeague 2026-27

Why the Model Favors Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home court +14.2 Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +6.8 Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade
Scoring & shooting +6.5 Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv
Ballhandling, steals & fouls +3.4 Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade
Rebounding & paint presence +0.6 Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 66% for Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

Per-player expected lines and full probability distributions, including PIR, EuroLeague's signature box-score metric. Click a player to view their full distributions.

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HOMEPartizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade

PTS15.6 REB3.0 AST5.8 3PM1.3 PIR16.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS5.9 REB2.4 AST4.2 3PM1.1 PIR7.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS10.0 REB3.2 AST2.1 3PM1.6 PIR9.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS9.0 REB4.4 AST1.5 3PM0.2 PIR10.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS4.8 REB3.3 AST0.7 3PM0.1 PIR6.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)

AWAYMaccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv

PTS10.5 REB2.3 AST4.2 3PM1.2 PIR12.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS8.6 REB4.0 AST1.8 3PM0.3 PIR9.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS10.1 REB3.3 AST1.7 3PM0.9 PIR9.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS8.8 REB4.8 AST1.5 3PM1.1 PIR10.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS7.2 REB3.9 AST1.5 3PM0.6 PIR8.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)

Starting Five Matchup

1
Carlik Jones Guard
PTS
15.6
PIR
16.5
REB
3.0
VS
Yam Madar Guard
PTS
10.5
PIR
12.1
REB
2.3
2
Alessandro Pajola Guard
PTS
5.9
PIR
7.8
REB
2.4
VS
Jaylen Hoard Forward
PTS
8.6
PIR
9.4
REB
4.0
3
Ethan Thompson Forward
PTS
10.0
PIR
9.2
REB
3.2
VS
Roman Sorkin Forward
PTS
10.1
PIR
9.7
REB
3.3
4
Nikola Tanaskovic Center
PTS
9.0
PIR
10.1
REB
4.4
VS
O'Shae J Brissett Forward
PTS
8.8
PIR
10.1
REB
4.8
5
Joffrey Lauvergne Center
PTS
4.8
PIR
6.5
REB
3.3
VS
Daniel Theis Center
PTS
7.2
PIR
8.3
REB
3.9
1-5 = projected starter slot, the order the model expects the five to be named · PTS = Projected Points · PIR = Performance Index Rating (all-round impact) · REB = Projected Rebounds

Key Prediction Insights

Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade is favored at home, with a 66% chance to win. The forecast gives the hosts a clear advantage, though not a decisive one.

Total Points & Spread Analysis

The projected total is 164 points, with Partizan expected to win by seven. That combination points to a competitive game, with the home side holding a modest cushion.

Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).

Total Points · expected 163.8

Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)

Spread (Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade − Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv) · expected +6.7

Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings are falling over the last five games, down 33 points for Partizan and 44 for Maccabi.

Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade

-12 -16 over last 5 games

Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).

Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv

-113 -54 over last 5 games

Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).

EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings

See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.

View Full ELO Ratings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade

1-2 in last 3
WLL
OpponentPFPADiff
Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade 85 82 +3
LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne 75 82 -7
Zalgiris Kaunas 80 87 -7

Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv

0-3 in last 3
LLL
OpponentPFPADiff
Real Madrid 99 113 -14
Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade 78 100 -22
Paris Basketball 94 99 -5

Game Analysis

Home court and team-strength ratings are the main supports for Partizan. Maccabi’s scoring and shooting are its strongest counter, giving the visitors a way to keep pace if their offense delivers.

Partizan also rates better in ballhandling, steals and fouls, areas that can help limit turnovers and create extra chances. Carlik Jones is projected for 16 points and six assists, giving the hosts a leading scorer and playmaker. Yam Madar is projected for 11 points and four assists, making him an important organizer for Maccabi.

Final Prediction

Maccabi’s shooting is the most direct route to an upset. If it turns that advantage into enough scoring to offset Partizan’s home-court edge, the seven-point forecast could be overturned.

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