League One Promotion Race Simulations
We simulate the rest of the League One season 10,000 times on our team Elo ratings — every remaining fixture gets a sampled scoreline (draws included), tables are built on points and goal difference, and the promotion play-offs are then played out bracket-by-bracket in every simulated season. Out comes each club's chance of the title, promotion — automatic or through the play-offs — and relegation. Played games are facts, not guesses; only what's still undecided is a probability.
Final Standings 2025-26
The Race, Match by Match 2025-26
Each line is a club's average simulated league position after every match date — 1st at the top. The calendar matters: a soft run of fixtures pulls a line up, a brutal one drags it down. Pick a club to spotlight its road.
Swipe the chart sideways to travel the season.
10,000 seasons
Every remaining fixture gets a full sampled scoreline from a Poisson goals model built on our team Elo ratings — home advantage included, draws included. Points, goal difference and the final table fall out of the goals.
Results lock in
Played matches are facts, not forecasts: the table always starts from the real points and goal difference, and the timeline's past is the actual rank trajectory. Only the remaining calendar is simulated.
Honest odds
A league season is decided over 34–46 rounds, so strong sides separate — but draws, goal difference and the fixture calendar keep the races open. We report calibrated probabilities, not hype.
How is the League One season simulated?
We fit a Poisson goals model on a decade of matches — team Elo ratings (plus a carry-over anchor from last season) set each side's expected goals, with home advantage on top. Every remaining fixture is sampled 10,000 times; wins, draws, goal difference and points build 10,000 final tables, and the odds you see are simple counts over those tables.
Do the simulations include draws?
Yes — draws come out of the sampled scorelines naturally, and the model's draw coupling is calibrated so the simulated draw share matches the real one (about a quarter of matches). Goal difference is simulated too, so tight races are broken the way real tables are.
How are the promotion play-offs simulated?
In every simulated season the clubs landing in the play-off places actually play the bracket out with the same goals model — two-legged ties are sampled leg by leg and aggregated, single-game finals are played at a neutral venue, and ties resolve by each league's real rule (extra time and penalties in England, the better-seeded side elsewhere). "Promoted" is the share of simulated seasons a club goes up by any path — automatic or as play-off winner.
What do the promotion and relegation bands mean?
Each league's real format is configured — automatic promotion places, the play-off (or barrage) seats and direct relegation, plus the relegation play-out where the league has one. A club's band probability is the share of simulated seasons in which it finishes inside that band.
What does the rank timeline show?
Each club's average simulated position after every match date. Past dates show the actual rank trajectory; future dates show where the simulations expect each club to be — including the effect of the fixture calendar it is about to face.
How often do the numbers update?
On every prediction run: completed rounds are locked in and the remaining season is re-simulated 10,000 times.